Method and system for probabilistically quantifying and visualizing relevance between two or more citationally or contextually related data objects

ABSTRACT

In one embodiment the present invention provides a novel method for probabilistically quantifying a degree of relevance between two or more citationally or contextually related data objects, such as patent documents, non-patent documents, web pages, personal and corporate contacts information, product information, consumer to behavior, technical or scientific information, address information, and the like. In another embodiment the present invention provides a novel method for visualizing and displaying relevance between two or more citationally or contextually related data objects. In another embodiment the present invention provides a novel search input/output interface that utilizes an iterative self-organizing mapping (“SOM”) technique to automatically generate a visual map of relevant patents and/or other related documents desired to be explored, searched or analyzed. In another embodiment the present invention provides a novel search input/output interface that displays and/or communicates search input criteria and corresponding search results in a way that facilitates intuitive understanding and visualization of the logical relationships between two or more related concepts being searched.

RELATED APPLICATIONS

The present application is a divisional of U.S. application Ser. No.11/236,965, filed Sep. 27, 2005, which is hereby incorporated byreference in its entirety.

BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION

1. Field of the Invention

The present invention relates generally to the field of documentsearching, data mining and data visualization.

2. Description of the Related Art

The field of data searching and data/text mining is replete with varioussearch methods and algorithms for helping determine the identity and/orlocation of documents that may have relevance to a particular subjectmatter of interest. The most basic search techniques involve locatingspecific words or word combinations within one or more of a quantity ofdocuments contained in a database. This search methodology, while verysimple to implement, suffers from a number of significant drawbacks,including slow search processing time, limited ability to construct andexecute complex search queries, and other well-documented limitationsinherent in the use of keywords as search criteria. Improvements to thebasic keyword search include the use of structured queries (e.g., basedon Boolean logic), word stemming, wildcards, fuzzy logic, contextualanalysis and latent semantic analysis.

Despite its well-documented drawbacks, simple key-word based searchingis still a good entry point to quickly locate documents of generalinterest to a relevant subject matter. It is sufficient in manysearching applications to locate a particular desired piece ofinformation contained within one or more documents being searched.However, there are many specialized searching applications, particularlyin the science, technology, academic and legal fields, where keywordsearching (even with the various improvements to date) provides anunsatisfactory approach for locating some or all of the relevantdocuments that may be of interest to a researcher. The primaryunderlying difficulty is that words and word phrases are imprecise bytheir nature. Different words and word phrases can have completelydifferent meanings in different associative contexts. As a result,key-word based searching in these and other specialized searchingapplications tends to be a slow and tedious process, typically producingsignificant numbers of irrelevant documents or “false hits” and oftenfailing to turn up one or more desired relevant documents.

More advanced searching techniques rely on contextual or bibliographicallinkages between two or more documents. For example, U.S. Pat. No.6,754,873 issued Jun. 22, 2004 to Law, et. al. describes a searchtechnique for finding related hyperlinked documents located on theworld-wide-web using link-based analysis. In this case backlink andforwardlink sets are utilized to find web pages that are related to aparticular selected web page of interest. The resulting list of relatedweb pages is typically sorted in accordance with a calculated relevancyscore, the intent being that presumably the most relevant and/or highestquality hits would be listed toward the top of the search results pageand the least relevant and/or lowest quality hits would be listed towardthe bottom of the search results page.

Relevancy scores are typically calculated as an arbitrary score ormetric based on one or more selected factors determined (or assumed) tobe informative as to the quality or relevance of the search outputrelative to the search input. For example, the search engine may assignan arbitrary rank or score to each hit calculated according to thenumber or frequency of keyword occurrences in each document, the intentbeing that the total score would roughly correspond to the relevance orimportance of the particular located document relative to the inputsearch query. Another example, described in the article entitled “TheAnatomy of a Large-Scale Hypertextual Search Engine,” by Sergey Brin andLawrence Page, assigns a degree of importance to a web page based on thelink structure of the web page. In this manner, the Brin and Pagealgorithm attempts to quantify the importance of a web page based not onits content, but on the number and quality of linkages to and from otherweb pages.

U.S. Pat. No. 6,526,440 issued Feb. 25, 2003 to Bharat and assigned toGoogle, Inc. describes a similar search engine for searching a corpus ofdata and refining a standard relevancy score based on theinterconnectivity of the initially returned set of documents. The searchengine obtains an initial set of relevant documents by matching searchterms to an index of a corpus. A re-ranking component in the searchengine then refines the initially returned document rankings so thatdocuments frequently cited in the initial set of relevant documents arepreferred over documents that are less frequently cited within theinitial set. The resulting hits in each case are typically displayed ina text-scrolled list, with the relative placement of each hit on thelist being determined in accordance with the calculated relevancy score.This, in essence, is the primary search and relevance ranking algorithmbehind the popular Google® search engine.

As with the Google® search engine, many of the more sophisticated searchengines today are primarily optimized toward the task of searching theworld wide web for relevant documents of a general-content nature andfocusing typically on a single item of information or a single concept.Most searches conducted using these types of search algorithms seek tofind particular items of information that are essentially known to existand that can be described with a few simple key words. The probabilitythat a user would be able to successfully use a search engine in thiscontext to locate at least one source of information satisfying theuser's need is fairly high. However, in certain specialized searchingapplications, particularly in the science, technology, academic andlegal fields, conventional search engines provide an unsatisfactoryapproach for locating some or all of the relevant documents that may beof interest to a researcher.

For example, those skilled in the intellectual property arts and thepatent legal field in general will readily appreciate the difficulty andchallenge of searching through vast databases of case law, patents andrelated scientific documents looking for “prior art” documents relevantto a particular issued patent or pending application and/or casesrelevant to a particular point of law. For patents the difficulty andchallenge stems from the confluence of several unique factors affectingpatents and patent-related documents. These factors include the shearvolume of potentially relevant patent documents and related scientificliterature (estimated at over 80 million documents worldwide), latentinaccuracies and inconsistencies in the technology classifications usedby the various national and international patent offices, the complexscientific nature of patent disclosures, the ever evolving lexicon fordescribing novel patented concepts and structures, language translationissues in the case of relevant foreign patent documents and scientificliterature, and the proclivity of patent attorneys and agents to usecomplex legalese and coined lexicon to describe novel concepts. Thepurpose of the patent search is also quite different than the normalsearch context. The point is not so much to find useful informationrelevant to a concept of interest, but to establish and document legalevidence of the existence or non-existence of a particular concept oridea in combination with one or more other related concepts or ideas ata particular point in time.

Traditional search engines are not particularly adept at efficientlyhandling these and other types of specialized searching applications.The standard input/output text interface of most conventional searchengines also does a poor job of displaying and communicatinginput/output search criteria and search results in a way thatfacilitates intuitive understanding and visualization of the logicalrelationships sought to be explored between two or more related conceptsbeing searched. It would be of particular benefit to provide an improvedsearch algorithm, database and user interface that would overcome or atleast mitigate some or all of the above-noted problems and limitations.

SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION

In one embodiment the present invention provides a novel method forprobabilistically quantifying a degree of relevance between two or morecitationally or contextually related data objects. Data objects mayinclude, for example and without limitation, patent documents,non-patent documents, reported case law, web pages, personal andcorporate contacts information, product information, consumer behavior,technical or scientific information, address information, and the like.

In another embodiment the present invention provides a novel method forvisualizing and displaying relevance between two or more citationally orcontextually related data objects.

In another embodiment the present invention provides a novel searchinput/output interface that displays and/or communicates search inputcriteria and corresponding search results in a way that facilitatesintuitive understanding and visualization of the logical relationshipsbetween two or more related concepts being searched.

In another embodiment the present invention provides a novel searchinput/output interface that utilizes an iterative self-organizingmapping (“SOM”) technique to automatically generate a visual map ofrelevant patents and/or other related documents desired to be explored,searched or analyzed.

In another embodiment the present invention provides a statisticallyoptimized relevance scoring system for statistically quantifying thedegree of relevance between two or more citationally and/or contextuallyrelated documents according to a calculated event probability that aparticular selected relationship exists between the two or more selecteddocuments.

In another embodiment the present invention provides an improved searchalgorithm having capability to statistically quantify a degree ofrelevance between two or more citationally and/or contextually relateddocuments and to provide an interactive visual interface for displayingand interacting with the resulting data set.

In another embodiment the present invention provides an improved searchmethod and algorithm for locating patent documents and/or other relateddocuments of interest. A first group of patents is identifiedrepresenting the closest known references to a particular technology orsearch topic of interest. Relevance analysis is performed on the firstgroup to generate a second group of relevant patents, each having anassociated relevance score to the first group. A user reviews the secondgroup of relevant patents and selectively adds any desired additionalrelevant patents to the first group. The search method is iterativelyrepeated as many times as desired to generate a desired list of mostrelevant patents and/or other documents of interest.

In another embodiment the present invention provides an improved methodand system for probabilistically quantifying the degree of relevancebetween two or more citationally and/or contextually related documentsand an interactive visual interface for representing a resultingdetermined relevant document set in the form of a self-organizing map(“SOM”) comprising one or more depicted subject matter domains or“landscapes.”

In another embodiment the present invention provides an improved methodand system for rating and analyzing patents using relational citationanalysis in conjunction with a self-organizing mapping technique thatmaps or categorizes patents by iteratively adjusting or optimizing anarbitrary or scaled distance between citationally related and/orunrelated patents within a multi-dimensional space.

In another embodiment the present invention provides an improved modelapproach for quantitatively measuring a degree of relevance between twoor more patents and/or other documents of interest and to thereby group,map and/or cluster relevant patents and related documents objectivelyand repeatable.

In another embodiment the present invention provides an improved modelapproach for quantitatively measuring a degree of relevance between twoor more patents and/or other documents of interest by analyzingcitational relationships between multiple related documents (“relationalcitation analysis”). Relational citation analysis is a novel techniquethat exploits citational and/or contextual relationships (“relevancelinks”) between two or more patent documents and/or other relateddocuments of interest for the purpose of quantitatively measuring adegree of relevance.

In another embodiment the present invention a determined relevanceregression transform function is executed by a high-speed computeracross an entire database of potentially relevant documents. Relevancescores are calculated between each document and each other document (orpotentially relevant document) in the database and the results arestored in an accessible index so that relevance scores can be instantlyaccessed on the fly as needed.

In another embodiment the present invention provides an improvedtechnique for measuring contextual relatedness or contextual similaritybetween two or more documents, including the steps of: i) identifying alist of words used in each document along with calculated wordfrequencies (number of times each word is used divided by the total wordcount for each document); ii) multiplying each corresponding wordfrequency to obtain a frequency product for each word; iii) dividingeach frequency product by one-half the sum of the squares of eachcorresponding word frequency; and iv) taking the sum total of the resultfor each word.

In another embodiment the present invention provides an improvedtechnique utilizing relevance analysis, SOM mapping, and/or ratings tomeasure and quantify the degree to which one or more patent portfoliosmay compliment each other. Relevance analysis and/or relevance scoresare generated for each patent owned by a potential acquisition targetrelative a potential acquiring company. Higher average relevance scoresindicate the presence of more complimentary patents; lower relevancescores indicate the presence of less complimentary patents.

In another embodiment the present invention provides an improvedtechnique utilizing relevance analysis, SOM mapping, and/or ratings toidentify and qualify specific patent assets and/or groups of patentassets desired to be purchased or sold through private negotiatedtransactions, public sales and/or private or public auctions and thelike.

In another embodiment the present invention provides an improvedtechnique utilizing relevance analysis, SOM mapping, and/or ratings toquickly identify and qualify one or more human resources (e.g., lawfirms, attorneys, agents, companies, universities, researchers,inventors, employees, and the like) based on particular identifiedtechnology expertise and/or work product quality.

In another embodiment the present invention provides an improvedtechnique utilizing relevance analysis, SOM mapping, and/or ratings toprovide improved semantic analysis. Preferably one or more clusters ofpatents and/or other related documents are identified using relationalcitation analysis, relevance analysis and/or SOM relevance mapping.Logical clusters are then further analyzed for word frequency usage.Similarities and/or differences are identified and analyzed using latentsemantic filtering and/or other similar techniques.

In another embodiment the present invention provides an improvedtechnique utilizing relevance analysis, SOM mapping, and/or ratings togenerate dictionaries of similar and/or synonymous words. Preferably,descriptive key words appearing in patent titles of clustered patentsare statistically analyzed and mapped to similar or related wordsappearing in the title, abstract, description or claims of the clusteredpatents.

In another embodiment the present invention provides an improvedtechnique utilizing relevance analysis, SOM mapping, and/or ratings tocorrect and/or unify erroneous data entries, name and address variationsand the like.

In another embodiment the present invention provides an improvedtechnique utilizing relevance analysis, SOM mapping, and/or ratings toquickly and automatically identify and map commercial products orservices that correlate (or likely correlate) to one or more patents.

In another embodiment the present invention provides an improvedtechnique utilizing relevance analysis, SOM mapping, and/or ratings tomeasure or estimate relative claim breadth. One or more clusters ofpatents and/or other related documents are identified using relationalcitation analysis, relevance analysis and/or SOM relevance mapping.Logical clusters are then further analyzed to construct a statisticalhierchy of claims and/or claim language according to determined relativebreadth.

In another embodiment the present invention provides an improvedtechnique utilizing relevance analysis, SOM mapping, and/or ratings toprovide royalty benchmarking and other objective guidelines for purposesof royalty sharing, balance of payment calculations, pooling and thelike. In one embodiment a regression-optimized royalty sharing formulais constructed based on relevance analysis and/or a combination ofrelevance analysis, claim breadth analysis and/or claim validityanalysis.

In another embodiment the present invention provides an improvedtechnique utilizing relevance analysis, SOM mapping, and/or ratings toform and operate an open patent pool loosely modeled after the AmericanSociety of Composers, Authors and Publishers (“ASCAP”). In oneembodiment a large number of related and/or unrelated patents or patentinterests pooled together, clustered into logical groups or licensingbundles, and licensed openly under standardized terms to variousindustries who may use or desire to use some or all of the patentedtechnologies.

In another embodiment the present invention provides an improvedtechnique utilizing relevance analysis, SOM mapping, and/or ratings tocreate and implement an automated conflict check system that is capableof statistically screening and monitoring potential adverse party andsubject matter conflicts. In one preferred embodiment a conflictsdatabase is created, including a unified assignee name database and namevariation database and other related items of information, such asgeographic location, IPC/SIC codes, assigned patents, trademarks,product names or descriptions, inventor names, executive names and/orthe like. A regression algorithm is formulated and optimized todetermine or estimate the risk or probability of an adverse relationshipor potential conflict based on the conflicts database and certainprovided input information.

For purposes of summarizing the invention and the advantages achievedover the prior art, certain objects and advantages of the invention havebeen described herein above. Of course, it is to be understood that notnecessarily all such objects or advantages may be achieved in accordancewith any particular embodiment of the invention. Thus, for example,those skilled in the art will recognize that the invention may beembodied or carried out in a manner that achieves or optimizes oneadvantage or group of advantages as taught herein without necessarilyachieving other objects or advantages as may be taught or suggestedherein.

All of these embodiments and obvious variations thereof are intended tobe within the scope of the invention herein disclosed. These and otherembodiments of the present invention will become readily apparent tothose skilled in the art from the following detailed description havingreference to the attached figures, the invention not being limited toany particular preferred embodiment(s) disclosed.

BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE FIGURES

Having thus summarized the overall general nature of the invention andits features and advantages, certain preferred embodiments and exampleswill now be described in detail having reference to the figures thatfollow, of which:

FIG. 1 is a generalized overview diagram of one preferred embodiment ofa multivariate regression model for rating and/or analyzing patents andhaving features and advantages of the present invention;

FIG. 2A is a graph illustrating how historically observed patentmaintenance rates generally increase with increasing IPQ;

FIG. 2B is a graph illustrating how patent life expectancy generallyincreases with increasing IPQ;

FIG. 3 is a simplified block diagram of one possible embodiment of apatent rating method and automated system having features and advantagesin accordance with the present invention;

FIG. 4 is a simplified schematic flow chart of one suitablemulti-variate regression technique that may be employed in carrying outthe present invention;

FIG. 5 is a simplified schematic diagram illustrating one preferredapproach for determining and measuring multi-generational citationalrelationships between two or more selected documents;

FIG. 6 is a 2-dimensional self organizing map (“SOM”) generated inaccordance with one preferred embodiment of the present invention;

FIG. 7 is a 2-dimensional SOM map of the entire U.S. patent space (allpatents issued from 1983 to 2003) generated in accordance with oneembodiment of the present invention, and wherein major groups of patentsare divided into logical cells or domains;

FIG. 8 shows the 2-dimensional SOM map of FIG. 7 modified to illustrateaverage IPQ scores of each identified major group of patents;

FIG. 9 shows the 2-dimensional SOM map of FIG. 7 modified to illustrateaverage historical litigation rates of each identified major group ofpatents;

FIG. 10A shows a drill-down view of the aerospace technology spacewherein all high-IPQ patents (patents having IPQ scores above a selectedthreshold) have been flagged or highlighted;

FIG. 10B shows a drill-down view of the aerospace technology space ofFIG. 10A wherein patents owned by selected competitors have beenhighlighted and color/shape coded; and

FIG. 11 is a generalized overview diagram of a modified multivariateregression model for rating and/or analyzing patents having features andadvantages of the present invention.

DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE PREFERRED EMBODIMENTS

Several preferred embodiments of the invention are described belowwithin the specific contexts of statistically rating, valuing andanalyzing intellectual property assets (namely, patents, patentapplications and related documents). The invention enjoys particularadvantages in these and other similar applications. However, thoseskilled in the art will readily appreciate that the basic invention andthe various inventive concepts disclosed and described herein in detailalso have broad application outside of the specific field ofintellectual property. These applications include, for example andwithout limitation, general-use search engines for conducting searchingof relevant documents or other data objects on the world-wide web and/orother databases of interest, data mining, relationship mining,degree-of-separation analysis, statistical data analysis, behavioralanalysis, data analytics and automated report-generation, documentscoring, rating or ranking, financial analysis, predictive analytics,Monte Carlo analysis, royalty distribution, impact analysis, automateddocument categorizing or classification, probabilistic latent semanticanalysis, automated document handling, automated searching, machinelanguage translation applications, legal conflict checking, dataaggregation, data cleansing, expert systems, decision tree analysis,artificial intelligence, information processing, data visualization,interactive database interfaces, self-organizing mapping (SOM) solutionsand other data search, analysis and visualization aids. These and othersimilar or related applications and obvious variants thereof will becomereadily apparent to those skilled in the art from the following detaileddisclosure'and description of the preferred embodiments.

Patent Informatics

Patents play a critical role in encouraging private investment in newideas and the development of new technologies that increase productivityand improve quality of life for everyone. Each year more than aquarter-million patent applications are filed in the United StatesPatent and Trademark Office (“PTO” or “USPTO”), resulting in theissuance of over a hundred fifty-thousand patents annually. Patentowners and applicants pay combined fees and costs of well over a billiondollars per year to the PTO to obtain and maintain their patents andapplications. Patent owners collect an estimated $4-6 billion in directlicensing fees each year. They also bring thousands of infringementsuits each year in the federal courts resulting in additional billionsof dollars in related litigation costs, settlements and awards.

Because of the great importance of patents in the U.S. and globaleconomies there is intense interest to identify and quantitativelyanalyze patents in the context of the various competitive landscapeswithin which they exist. The reality is that every patent and everypatented technology is unique. There are good patents and bad patents;broad patents and narrow patents; patents that are well-drafted andprosecuted and others that are not so well-drafted or prosecuted. Twopatents in the same industry and relating to the same subject matter cancommand drastically different royalty rates in a free market (or damageawards in litigation) depending upon subtle differences that affect thecomparative breadth and defensibility of each patent.

Quantitative patent data, such as statistical ratings, maintenance valuecalculations, relevance analysis, litigation risk profiling, eventprobability analysis, decision tree analysis, and the like(collectively, “patent informatics”), is considered particularlyvaluable information. Such information can be used to help guide futureR&D efforts, optimize patent filing and maintenance strategies, andprovide objective guidelines and benchmarks that can help facilitate andencourage amicable settlements of patent infringement lawsuits and otherpatent-related disputes. Additional applications include providingobjective benchmarks and guidelines for royalty sharing and patentpooling arrangements, balance of payment calculations for patentportfolio cross-licensing, internal royalty transfer calculations fortax-treatment purposes, and estimated value assessments to support avariety of financial and investment decisions.

For example, financial advisors and investors may seek to use patentinformatics for purposes of comparative value analysis and/or forconstructing better measures of the underlying “fundamental value” ofprivate or publicly traded companies or for purposes of evaluatingpossible strategic acquisitions or as a guide to investment. Economistsmay seek to use such information for purposes of identifying andquantifying new or growing sectors of the economy and/or for economicforecasting and planning purposes. Various regulatory agencies, such asthe U.S. Internal Revenue Service, may seek to use such information asan efficient screen for identifying potential audit targets intransactions involving, for example, charitable patent donations androyalty-based tax transfer pricing. Insurance carriers may seek to usesuch information to better identify and quantify relative risks withinone or more technology sectors and/or for purposes of determiningappropriate policy risk premiums and coverage levels for particularpatents or portfolios of patents. See, e.g., U.S. Pat. No. 6,018,714,incorporated herein by reference.

Extracting useful patent informatics from vast worldwide databases ofpatent documents and related collateral information databases, whileconceptually simple, can be quite daunting. Even after all the relevantraw information has been identified and collected, there is still theHerculean task of scrubbing, unifying and aggregating all of therelevant data fields and parsing and distilling each item of neededinformation to a sufficient point such that the entire body of data canbe processed and analyzed intelligibly with a desired degree ofgranularity and drill-down capacity.

Organizing and communicating patent informatics data relative to one ormore technology areas of interest can also be exceedingly difficult.Typically, patents are categorized according to a predetermined scheduleof USPTO, EPO and/or WIPO patent classifications (and, occasionally, SICcodes). But the resulting categorizations are often imprecise due to thecomplex and ever-evolving nature of technology innovation. Subjectivityand variation among multiple human decision-makers also plays asignificant role in the classification process, often resulting ininconsistent and sometimes seemingly arbitrary classifications.Individual patents may often be categorized in the “wrong” categoryaltogether and/or they may be categorized in multiple distinctcategories if, for example, no single existing classification neatlyfits the technology that is the subject of a patent. This createsdifficulties not only in searching for and identifying relevant orsimilar patents by classification designation, but it also creates adegree of imprecision when conducting statistical patent analysis and/orautomated patent searching using USPTO or WIPO classifications asstatistical variants or search limitations. This imprecision isparticularly undesirable in the context of measuring and communicatingpatent informatics data relative to one or more desired technology areasthat may be of interest.

Patent searching presents another particularly significant challenge.This is because of not only the shear volume of patent documents andrelated non-patent documents involved, but limitations of traditionalkey word searching across multiple technologies, chronologies, andlanguages. As noted above, patent classifications are notoriously proneto latent inaccuracies and inconsistencies in how the variousclassification categories are defined and applied by each of thenational and international patent offices throughout the world. Thismakes the use of classification search limiters all but impractical,since limiting search results by classification creates the risk thatone or more relevant documents may be missed altogether. As a result,patent searching using conventional data base queries and search enginestends to be a slow and tedious process, typically producing significantnumbers of irrelevant documents or “false hits” and often failing toturn up one or more desired relevant documents. The use of relationalcitation analysis, in accordance with one preferred embodiment of theinvention, greatly improves the ability to search, identify andcategorize patent documents according to relevant subject matter.

Predictive Analytics

The use of predictive analytics tools to extract useful information fromvast databases of patent and other related information has continued togain widespread acceptance. A variety of predictive analytics tools arepresently available and can be used to directly calculate estimatedprobability distributions of any number of desired events relative toone or more selected patent populations. Some of the more popularpredictive analytics approaches (e.g., multi-variate regressionanalysis) have been rigorously studied and tested by noted researchersand academics with positively correlated results being reported invarious peer reviewed publications. See, e.g., Mark A. Lemley, et al.,Valuable Patents, 92 Georgetown Law Journal 435 (2004) (applyingmulti-variate logit regression to characterize and quantify variouspatent litigation risk factors). The growing appetite for moreinsightful and statistically predictive patent informatics hasstimulated continual development of ever-more sophisticated predictiveanalytics tools and statistical models for extracting useful patentinformation.

In its simplest form predictive analytics provides a statistical andanalytical tool for predicting various desired outcomes based onmultiple selected input factors or input criteria. Predictive analyticsis a particularly powerful tool for generating useful patent informaticsfrom a large body of patent data stored on a database. For example, U.S.Pat. No. 6,556,992 issued to Applicant, and incorporated herein byreference in its totality, first disclosed the concept of applying amulti-variate regression analysis to one or more objective factors ormetrics associated with a patent or group of patents to statisticallyanalyze, predict and quantify patent quality, life expectancy and/orprobable value. Useful rankings or ratings are derived from PTOmaintenance records by determining and exploiting statisticalcorrelations between patent maintenance rates, for example, and certainobjective attributes or “metrics” revealed by the patent, its filehistory and/or other associated public records. The present invention,in accordance with at least one preferred embodiment, improves andexpands on the essential concepts disclosed in the '992 patent.

According to one preferred embodiment of the invention, relative ratingsor rankings are generated using a database of selected patentinformation by identifying and comparing various relevantcharacteristics or metrics of individual patents contained in thedatabase. In one example, a first population of patents having a knownor assumed relatively high intrinsic value (e.g. successfully litigatedpatents) are compared to a second population of patents having a knownor assumed relatively low intrinsic value (e.g. unsuccessfully litigatedpatents). Based on the comparison, certain characteristics areidentified as statistically more prevalent or more pronounced in onepopulation group or the other to a significant degree.

These statistical comparisons are then used to construct and optimize acomputer model or computer algorithm comprising a series of operativerules and/or mathematical equations. The algorithm is used to predictand/or provide statistically determined probabilities of a desired valueor quality being present and/or of a future event occurring, given theidentified characteristics of an individual identified patent or groupof patents. The algorithm may comprise a simple scoring and weightingsystem which assigns scores and relative weightings to individualidentified characteristics of a patent or group of patents determined(or assumed) to have statistical significance. For example, positivescores could generally be applied to those patent characteristicsdetermined or believed to have desirable influence and negative scorescould be applied to those patent characteristics determined or assumedto have undesirable influence on the particular quality or event ofinterest.

Once the basic algorithm is constructed, a high-speed computer ispreferably used to repeatedly test the algorithm against one or moreknown patent populations (e.g. patents declared to be valid/invalid orinfringed/non-infringed). During and/or following each such test thealgorithm is refined (preferably automatically) by iteratively adjustingthe scorings and/or weightings assigned until the predictive accuracy ofthe algorithm is optimized. Adjustments can be made automatically in anorderly convergence progression, and/or they can by made randomly orsemi-randomly. The latter method is particularly preferred where thereare any non-linearities in the equations or rules governing thealgorithm. Algorithm results are preferably calculated and reported asstatistical probabilities of a desired quality being present, or afuture event occurring (e.g., patent being litigated, abandoned,reissued, etc.) during a specified period in the future. Algorithmresults could also be calculated and/or reported as arbitrary raw scoresrepresenting the sum of an individual patent's weighted scores, whichraw scores can be further ranked and reported on a percentile basis orother similar basis as desired. Preferably, the statistical accuracy ofthe algorithm is tracked and reported over time and periodic refinementsare made as more and more data is collected and analyzed.

FIG. 1 is a generalized overview diagram of one such preferredembodiment of a multivariate regression model for rating and/oranalyzing patents and having features and advantages of the presentinvention. In one application, the model considers a variety ofindividual input data points drawn from various relevant data sourcesand applies a statistically optimized transform function or weightingfunction to calculate, based on the input data, the statisticalprobability that one or more patents selected from a particularpopulation of patents will be maintained or abandoned in the future. Rawprobability scores are calculated and provided as output by theregression model. Optionally, the raw probability scores may beadjusted, as desired, to provide a normalized median or nominal expectedscore of 100. This adjusted score, dubbed the “Intellectual PropertyQuotient” or IPQ™, is akin to the familiar intelligence quotient or IQused to score human intelligence. Thus, a score of 100 on the IPQ scalegenerally corresponds to an expected normal or median quality (averageexpected maintenance rate). An IPQ higher than 100 indicatesabove-average quality (higher expected maintenance rate) while an IPQlower than 100 indicates below-average quality (lower expectedmaintenance rate).

For example, FIG. 2A shows that historically observed patent maintenancerates generally increase with increasing TQ scores. Patents scoring 60or less on the IPQ scale had a 4^(th) year maintenance rate of 43.7%compared with an average 4^(th) year maintenance rate of 88.6%. Patentsscoring 150 or more on the IPQ scale had a 4^(th) year maintenance rateof 99.8%. FIG. 2B shows that patent life expectancy generally increaseswith increasing IPQ. Patents scoring 60 or less on the IPQ scale had anestimated life expectancy of about 6.7 years, compared with an averagelife expectancy of 17.9 years (full term) for patents scoring 150 orhigher. The median life expectancy was about 13.7 years corresponding toan overall average full-term survival rate of about 55.9% and an IPQscore of 100.

The resulting IPQ scores can be used not only to comparatively rankpatents, but also to estimate patent maintenance values (value asperceived by a hypothetical reasonable patent holder), probablecommercialization rates, mortality rates and life expectancies, andother parameters of interest derived from survival analysis ofstatistically similar patents. See, for example, Applicant's publishedco-pending application, US-2004-0010393, incorporated herein byreference in its totality. IPQ scores and/or other similar patentranking scores may also be useful, for example, in guiding patentmaintenance decisions, or conducting patent valuation analysis usingtraditional present value analysis, income valuation analysis and/or theBlack-Scholes options pricing model.

Independent regression variables may include a wide variety ofstatistically informative descriptive or quantifiable metrics orparameters that directly or indirectly measure or report a quality orcharacteristic of interest. For example, a wide variety of statisticallyinformative metrics may be extracted from the patent document itself(direct metrics), from related sources (intrinsic metrics), and/orunrelated sources (extrinsic metrics). Direct patent metrics generallymeasure or report those characteristics of a patent that are revealed bythe patent document itself, including its basic disclosure, drawings andclaims. Specific direct patent metrics may include, for example andwithout limitation, the number of claims, number of words per claim,number of different words per claim, word density (e.g.,different-words/total-words), length of patent specification, number ofdrawings or figures, number of cited prior art references, age of citedprior art references, number of subsequent citations received, subjectmatter classification and sub-classification, origin of the patent(foreign vs. domestic), payment of maintenance fees, prosecutingattorney or firm, patent examiner, examination art group, length ofpendency in the PTO, claim type (i.e. method, apparatus, system),assignee name, inventor name, etc.

Intrinsic patent metrics generally include other relevant factors orcharacteristics that exist outside the four corners of the patentdocument itself, but that are intrinsically related to the patent. Thesemay include, for example, the number and type of documents filed as partof the patent prosecution history. Also included in this category is thescope and contents of the prior art cited by the applicant and theexaminer and various statistically informative factors derivedtherefrom, such as obsolescence rates, mortality rates, comparativerelevancy analysis, relational citation analysis, and the like.Intrinsic patent metrics may also include a variety of otherstatistically derived measures such as frequency or infrequency ofcertain word usage relative to the general patent population or relativeto a defined sub-population of patents in the same general field.

Extrinsic patent metrics generally measure or report qualities orcharacteristics of a patent that are not directly revealed by the patentdocument itself or any intrinsically associated documents, but which canbe determined, derived or inferred from one or more external informationsources. Examples of extrinsic patent metrics may include, withoutlimitation, reported patent litigation results, published case opinions,patent licenses and associated royalty rates, marking of patentedproducts, technical similarities between similar patents, resale values,collateral values, and various recorded events affecting patents (e.g.,reassignments, security interests, foreclosures, bankruptcies, etc.).

The dependent regression variable preferably represents a particularquality or contingent event desired to be assessed probabilistically.The dependent variable may include, for example and without limitation,maintenance or abandonment events, quality rating or score (objective orsubjective), expected economic value, collateral value, litigation risk(offensive or defensive), probability and timing of allowance (forpending applications), reissue and reexamination events, litigationevents and/or outcomes, commercialization, licensing, royalty rates, andthe like. In a particularly advantageous application of the invention,the dependent regression variable may be ownership identity (e.g., whereownership is not otherwise indicated or is unclear). This hasparticularly unique advantages in the specific applications of datascrubbing, data integrity maintenance and so-called “name unification”(discussed in more detail later).

System Architecture

FIG. 3 is a simplified block diagram of one possible embodiment of apatent rating method and automated system 100 having features andadvantages in accordance with the present invention. The system isinitiated at the START block 110. At block 120 certain characteristicsC_(a) of Patent Population “A” are inputted from a database 125 in theform:C_(a)={A₁, A₂ . . . A_(n)}

where: C_(a)=set of selected characteristics of Pat. Pop. “A”

-   -   A_(n)=an individual selected characteristic of Pat. Pop. “A”

At block 130 characteristics C_(b) of Patent Population “B” are inputtedfrom a database 135 in the form:C_(b)={B₁, B₂ . . . B_(n)}

where: C_(b)=set of selected characteristics of Pat. Pop. “B”

-   -   B_(n)=an individual selected characteristic of Pat. Pop. “B”

Preferably, Patent Population “A” and Patent Population “B” are selectedto have different known or assumed intrinsic values and/or qualitiessuch that a fruitful comparison may be made. For example, Population “A”may comprise a random or semi-random (e.g., representative) sample ofsuccessfully litigated patents and/or individual patent claims.Population “B” may comprise a random or semi-random sample ofunsuccessfully litigated patents and/or individual patent claims. Inthat case, Population “A” patents/claims may be assumed to have higherintrinsic value than Population “B” patents/claims. Alternatively, andregardless of whatever assumed or intrinsic economic value the patentsmay have, Population “A” patents may be described as having the qualityof being successfully litigated (infringement or validity), whilstPopulation “B” patents may be described as having the quality of beingunsuccessfully litigated (infringement or validity).

By examining and comparing the characteristics of litigatedpatents/claims that fall into either population “A” or “B”, one can makecertain statistical conclusions and predictions about other patents thatmay or may not have been litigated. Such probabilistic analysis can alsobe easily extended to accurately calculate the odds, for example, ofprevailing on a particular patent infringement claim or defense in aparticular litigation proceeding (e.g., preliminary injunction motion,summary judgment motion, jury trial, bench trial, appeal, etc.). Suchinformation would be of tremendous value to patent litigants, forexample.

Of course, the study populations are not limited to litigatedpatents/claims. For example, one study population may comprise a randomor semi-random sample of patents selected from the general patentpopulation and having a representative “average” value or quality. Theother study population may comprise, for example and without limitation,a random or semi-random sample of patents selected from a sub-populationconsisting of all patents for which 1^(st), 2^(nd) or 3^(rd) maintenancefees have been paid; or all patents that have been licensed for morethan a predetermined royalty rate; or all patents that have beensuccessfully reissued/reexamined; or all patents that have relatedcounterpart foreign patents; or all patents that have been subsequentlycited by other patents at least X times; etc. The number and variety ofpossible ways to define study populations of interest in accordance withthe invention are virtually limitless.

Next, at block 140 a comparison is made between the selectedcharacteristics C_(a) of Patent Population “A” and the same selectedcharacteristics C_(b) of Patent Population “B”. Based on the comparison,certain characteristics are identified at block 144 as beingstatistically more prevalent or more pronounced in one population or theother to a significant degree. This comparison can be performed and thestatistical significance of observed differences determined by applyingknown statistical techniques. Thus, certain statistically relevantcharacteristics of each study population can be readily identified anddescribed mathematically and/or probabilistically.

At block 148 a multiple regression model is constructed using theidentified statistically relevant characteristics determined at block144. Multiple regression modeling is a well-known statistical techniquefor examining the relationship between two or more predictor variables(PVs) and a criterion variable (CV). In the case of the presentinvention the predictor variables (or independent variables) describe orquantify the selected relevant characteristics of a particular patentpopulation, e.g., class/sub-class, number of independent claims, numberof patent citations, length of specification, etc. Criterion variables(or dependent variables) measure a selected quality of a particularpatent population, such as likelihood of successful litigation (eithervalidity or infringement). Multiple regression modeling allows thecriterion variable to be studied as a function of the predictorvariables in order to determine a probabilistic relationship betweenselected variables. This data, in turn, can be used to predict thepresence or absence of the selected quality in other patents or relateddocuments of interest. The regression model has the general form:CV_(m)=f{PV₁, PV₂ . . . PV_(n)}

where: CV_(m)=criterion variable (e.g., quality desired to be predicted)

-   -   PV_(n)=predictor variable (e.g., statistically relevant        characteristic)

Once the regression model is completed it can be applied at block 150 topredict the presence or absence of the selected quality in other patentsselected from Patent Population “C”, for example, which may be the sameas or different from Populations “A” or “B.” Characteristics C_(c) ofeach individual patent P_(n) to be analyzed are inputted at block 150from a database 155 in the form:C_(c)={C₁, C₂ . . . C_(n)}

where: C_(c)=set of selected characteristics of a patent P_(n)

-   -   C_(n)=an individual selected characteristic of patent P_(n)

The relevant characteristics PV_(n) of patent P_(n) are identified andplugged into the regression model at block 160. The resulting predictedvalue or score CV_(m), representing the quality of interest for patentP_(n), is then outputted to a data output file 178, printer or otheroutput device, as desired. The system terminates at STOP block 180.

Statistical Methodology

Many different methods of statistical analysis may be suitably employedto practice the present invention. The preferred methodology utilizes amulti-variate probit regression performed, for example, by a high-speedcomputer. As noted above, multiple regression modeling is a statisticaltechnique for examining the relationship between two or more predictorvariables (PVs) and a criterion variable (CV). In the case of thepresent invention the predictor variables (or independent variables)describe or quantify certain to observable characteristics of aparticular patent population or other documents of interest, e.g.,number of independent claims, length of specification, citationalrelationship to other patents or related documents, etc. Criterionvariables (or dependent variables) measure a selected quality ofinterest of a particular patent population, such as likelihood ofsuccessful litigation, validity or infringement. Multi-variateregression modeling allows the criterion variable to be studied as afunction of the predictor variables in order to determine aprobabilistic relationship between selected variables. This data, inturn, can be used to predict the presence or absence of the selectedquality in other patents or related documents of interest.

For example, if one were interested in examining the relationshipbetween the number of times the word “means” is used in a claim (the PV)and a finding of infringement in litigation (the CV), one could use thefollowing simple linear regression model:Y=a+bXi

Where: Y=criterion variable (likelihood of patent infringement)

-   -   Xi=predictor variable (number of times “means” appears)    -   a=the Y-intercept (% found infringed where Xi=0)    -   b=the rate of change in Y given one unit change in Xi

The coefficients a, b can be determined by iteration or other means sothat the sum of squared errors is minimized in accordance with thewell-known ordinary least squares (OLS) technique or other specifiederror function. Given least squares or other error optimization, theabsolute mean of the errors will typically be driven to zero.

The above example is a single-variable, linear regression model. Incarrying out the present invention, those skilled in the art willreadily appreciate that it may be desirable to include a number ofdifferent predictor variables (PVs) in the regression model (expressedeither as linear or non-linear functions and/or rules) in order toextract as much useful information as possible from the available data.There are a wide variety of commercially available software platforms(e.g., StatGraphics) and various regression techniques (e.g., linearregression or probit regression) for conducting multi-variate regressionmodeling. FIG. 4 is a very simplified schematic flow chart 200 of onesuch suitable multi-variate regression technique that may be employed incarrying out the present invention.

The flow chart begins at the START block 202. At block 204 certainsystem variables are initialized. These include multi-regressioncoefficients a, b, c and d, incremental step changes Δa, Δb, Δc and Δdfor each coefficient a, b, c and d, respectively, and various countersCO (# correct predictions), IN (# incorrect predictions), n (# patent inpopulation) and m (loop repeat count). At step 206 the system inputsselected characteristics (C_(n)=X₁, X₂, X₃) of the next patent (n) inthe study population (e.g., litigated patents). Preferably, thecharacteristics X₁, X₂, X₃ have been previously selected and determinedto have a statistically significant impact on the selected patentquality desired to be measured. At step 208 the observed patent qualityY of patent n is inputted into the system. In this case, the patentquality of interest is the validity or invalidity of the patent asdetermined by a final judgment of a court. Alternatively, the measuredpatent quality could be any one or more of a number of other qualitiesof interest such as discussed above.

At step 210 the system calculates a predicted patent quality such as theprobability that the patent in question is valid P(valid). In this case,a simple linear multi-regression model is chosen having the form:P(valid)=a+bX ₁₊ cX ₂₊ dX ₃

where: P(valid)=predicted probability of patent validity

-   -   X₁, X₂, X₃ are various predictor variables    -   a=Y-intercept (% found valid where X₁, X₂, X₃=0)    -   b,c,d=rate of change in P(valid) per unit change of X₁, X₂, X₃

Once the probability of validity is calculated, the system at step 212determines an expected quality Y′ based on the probability P(valid). Inparticular, if P(valid) is calculated to be greater than 0.5 (>50%) thenthe expected outcome Y′ is that the patent is “VALID” as indicated byblock 214. If P(valid) is calculated to be less than 0.5 (<50%) then theexpected outcome Y′ is that the patent is “INVALID” as indicated byblock 216.

The expected patent quality or outcome Y′ is then compared to the actualobserved patent quality Y at step 220 and a determination is madewhether Y=Y′ indicating a correct prediction (block 218) or whetherY<>Y′ indicating an incorrect prediction (block 222). In the case of acorrect prediction the counter CO is incremented. In the event of anincorrect prediction, the counter IN is incremented. If patent(n) is notthe last patent in the study population, then decision bock 226 directsthe system to loop back again repeating the above steps 206-226 for thenext patent n=n+1 in the population and incrementing the patent countern at block 224. If patent(n) is the last patent in the population(n=#pop) then decision block 226 directs the system to begin astatistical analysis of the regression model.

This analysis begins at block 228 wherein the statistical accuracy (SA)of the model (m) is calculated using the equation:SA(m)=CO/(CO+IN)

where: SA(m)=statistical accuracy of regression model (m)

-   -   CO=number of correct predictions for model (m)    -   IN=number of incorrect predictions for model (m)

The statistical accuracy SA(m) is a simple and easily calculated measureof how much observed data was accurately accounted for (i.e. correctlypredicted) by the regression model (m). This is a very basic measure ofthe predictive accuracy of the regression model and is described hereinby way of example only. If desired, a more sophisticated approach, suchas variance analysis, could also be used to accurately measure thepredictive power of a given regression model (m).

Variance analysis measures the variance in the criterion variable (e.g.,Y′) as a function of each of the predictor variables (e.g., X₁, X₂, X₃).The measured variance in the criterion variable (Y′) can be broken intotwo parts: that predicted by one or more of the selected predictorvariables and that variance not predicted by the selected predictorvariables. The latter is often referred to as “error variance.” Thetotal predicted variance is the amount of variance accounted for by theregression model. For instance, if the predicted variance is 0.78—thismeans the regression model is accounting for 78% of the possiblevariance. Of course, it is important and desirable to account for asmuch variance as possible with a given regression model. The morevariance one can account for, the more confidence one has about thepredictions made by the regression model.

Predicted variance can also be increased by adding more predictorvariables to the regression model. But, as the number of predictorvariables in the regression model increases beyond a certain point thereis a risk that the predicted variance may become artificially inflated,indicating that the model is purporting to account for variance that isnot actually accounted for in the population. This problem may becontrolled by selecting an appropriate number of predictor variables ina given model in accordance with the number of samples in thepopulation. Preferably, the number of predictor variables is no morethan about 5-10% of the total number of samples in a given populationand is most preferably less than about 1-3% of the total population.Thus, for a patent population size of 1,000, preferably the number ofpredictor variables is no more than about 50-100 and most preferably nomore than about 10 to 30 total, or between about 15-25. Alternatively,where it is desirable to use more predictor variables in a givenregression model, an adjusted predicted variance may be calculated usingwell-known techniques which take into account both the number ofpredictor variables and the sample size.

Decision block 230 compares the calculated statistical accuracy SA(m) ofthe current regression model (m) to the statistical accuracy SA(m−1) ofthe previous regression model (m−1). If the statistical accuracy SA(m)indicates improvement, then decision block 230 directs the system tocoefficient adjustment block 227. This block increments or decrementsone or more of the coefficients (a, b, c and d) by a predeterminedamount (Δa, Δb, Δc and Δd). The adjustment amounts (+ or −) areperiodically determined by the system 200 to accurately converge theregression model toward maximum statistical accuracy SA. This may bedone in a variety of ways. One simple linear convergence technique isdescribed below.

If decision block 230 determines that SA(m)<SA(m−1), this indicates thatthe current regression model (m) is a worse predictor of the desiredpatent quality than the previous regression model (m−1). Therefore, adifferent adjustment is needed to be made to the coefficients a, b, c,and/or d in order to cause the system to reconverge toward the optimalsolution providing for maximum predictive accuracy. This is done bydirecting the system to blocks 232-268 to test the impact of variouschanges to each predictor variable (a, b, c, d) and to change one ormore of the coefficient adjustment amounts (Δa, Δb, Δc and Δd) asnecessary to reconverge on the optimal solution.

Preferably, course adjustments are made first and then finer and fineradjustments are continually made as the regression model converges on anoptimal solution having maximized statistical accuracy SA. Thus,decision blocks 232, 242, 252 and 262 first preferably determine whichof the adjustment amounts (Δa, Δb, Δc and Δd) is greatest in magnitude.For example, if it is determined that Δa is greater than each of theadjustment amounts Δb, Δc and Δd, then decision block 232 directs thesystem to block 234.

Block 234 tests a modified regression model (m−1) where a=a−Δa/2. If themodified regression model results in improved statistical accuracy suchthat:SA(TEST)>SA(m−1)then decision block 236 directs the system to block 238. Block 238inverts and reduces the adjustment amount Δa=−(Δa/2) and reinitializesthe counts CO and IN to zero. Block 240 reinitializes the patent countto n=1. The system then resumes normal operation starting at block 206.

If the modified regression model does not result in improved statisticalaccuracy, decision block 236 directs the system to the next decisionblock 242 to determine whether an adjustment to one of the othercoefficients might improve the accuracy of the regression model. Theprocess of adjusting the coefficients and testing the accuracy of a newadjusted regression model repeats until decision block 262 determinesthat the system has cycled through a predetermined number of models, inthis case m=1000. At this point the system stops at END block 270,whereby the data may be extracted and studied or used to provide qualityratings or rankings of patents outside (or inside) the study populationsas described above. If there are any non-linear relationships betweenthe criterion variable and any predictor variable(s), it is preferred torandomize the variable coefficients at least periodically and reconvergetoward an optimal solution in order to fully explore all possibleoptimal solutions.

Multi-variate regression modeling, as described above in connection withFIG. 4, is particularly well suited to carrying out the methods of thepresent invention. The methodology allows one not only to determine astatistical relationship between a criterion variable (CV) of interestand a number of predictor variables (PVs), it also allows one todetermine the independent contributions of each predictor variable inthe model by allowing for partitioning of variance. In other words, onecan determine how much variance in the criterion variable is accountedfor by a specific predictor variable. This can be accomplished, forexample, by removing the PV in question from the model and thendetermining if the correlation predicted by the model significantlydeclines when the predictor variable is removed from the equation andthe other predictor variables remain.

Partitioning of variance is also useful in detecting possiblecollinearity or multi-collinearity between two of more predictorvariables. Collinearity occurs when all or most of the variance in onepredictor variable is accounted for by one other predictor variable.Multi-collinearity exists when several predictor variables combinedaccount for all or most of the variance of another predictor variable.While not directly detrimental to the utility of the invention,collinearity or multi-collinearity can create problems where it isdesired to accurately determine the slope or direction of an individualregression line for a particular predictor variable. Collinearity ormulti-collinearity can be reduced or eliminated by removing superfluouspredictor variables and/or by combining two or more predictor variablesinto a single normalized predictor variable.

Relevant information which may be analyzed in accordance with theinvention herein disclosed may include any variety of useful informationfor which statistical probabilities can be calculated, including,without limitation: specific anticipated abandonment events (4^(th),8^(th), 12^(th) year maintenance payments), litigation risk (e.g.,likelihood of initiation, success and/or failure), maintenance value,market value, royalty rates, commercialization rates, relevancy to oneor more other patents, subject matter relevancy, identity of ownership(where it is not indicated or is otherwise uncertain), and the like. Awide variety of derivative and/or aggregated analyses can also beperformed, such as ratings or rankings of individual patents or patentportfolios; ratings or rankings of patent portfolios held by publiccorporations; ratings or rankings of patent portfolios held by pre-IPOcompanies; ratings or rankings of individual named inventors; andratings or rankings of professional service firms, law firms and thelike who prepare, prosecute and enforce patents or other intellectualproperty assets.

Relevance Analysis

When rating, analyzing or evaluating a single patent application, patentor a portfolio of patents or other documents it is often informativeand/or desirable to identify a group of most closely related patents (a“peer group”). For example, it may be desirable to identify the closestprior art to a disclosed or patented invention. It may also bestatistically informative or desirable to measure the frequency of aparticular quality or event of interest (e.g., abandonment, litigation,reassignment, citation, key word usage, etc.) having either occurred ornot occurred within an identified peer group population. For purposes ofconducting statistical analysis it is particularly important anddesirable to define relevant peer groups in a manner that is objectivelydeterminable and repeatable. Otherwise, it may be difficult to drawstatistically valid conclusions from comparative analysis thereof and/orto extrapolate the results of the comparative analysis to other patentsor other peer group documents. It is also particularly desirable,especially when constructing and optimizing regression algorithmsutilizing quality-specific or event-specific input data from one or moreselected relevant patents or other documents, to be able toquantitatively measure in an absolute probabilistic sense the degree ofrelevance between the document of interest and each selected relevantdocument for purposes of appropriately selecting and/or weightingspecific input data.

One very simple and useful way to define relevant peer groups of patentdocuments is to group according to primary classifications and/orsubclassifications assigned by the USPTO. For example, TABLE 1 belowsummarizes observed maintenance rates for a statistically relevantsample of U.S. utility patents categorized by the USPTO into severaldifferent primary classifications.

TABLE 1 Class Description Maint. Rate 482 Exercise Equipment 21% 473Golf Clubs/Equipment 26% 446 Toys and Amusement Devices 30% 206/250Packaging 43% 365/364 Computers 55% 935 Genetic Engineering 56%

As TABLE 1 illustrates, patents classified in Class 482 (“ExerciseEquipment”) had an average maintenance rate of 21% (79% of patentsabandoned prior to full term), while patents classified in Class 935(“Genetic Engineering”) had an average maintenance rate of 56% (44% ofpatents abandoned), and patents classified in Class 935 (“Computers”)had an average maintenance rate of 55% (45% of patents abandoned). Itcan be demonstrated from this and other data that USPTO primary patentclassifications are statistically informative of observed patentmaintenance rates.

However, patent classifications are notoriously prone to latentinaccuracies and inconsistencies in how classifications are defined andapplied by the various national and international patent offices.Typically, patents are categorized according to a predetermined scheduleof USPTO or WIPO patent classifications and/or SIC codes. But theresulting categorizations are often imprecise due to the complex andever-evolving nature of technology innovation. Subjectivity andvariation among multiple human decision-makers also plays a significantrole in the classification process often resulting in inconsistent andsometimes seemingly arbitrary classifications. Individual patents mayoften be categorized in the “wrong” category and/or they may becategorized in multiple distinct categories if, for example, no singleclassification neatly fits the technology that is the subject of apatent. This creates imprecision when conducting automated patentanalysis using USPTO or WIPO classifications as peer group identifiersand can also produce excessive “granularity” in the sense that theclassification group overall (or class/subclass combination) may notfairly represent the particular patent of interest.

Many other alternative approaches for clustering, categorizing and/ormeasuring similarity between two or more documents have been proposed.For example, one leading approach is explained in S. A. Solla, T. K.Leen, and K. R. Muller's “Learning the Similarity of Documents: AnInformation-Geometric Approach to Document Retrieval andCategorization,” ANIPS, v. 12, pp. 914-920, MIT Press, 2000. Thisapproach uses probabilistic latent semantic analysis (PLSA) to createarbitrary vectors describing documents and then measures the similarityof those vectors. PLSA essentially models documents as unstructuredgroups of words in which the importance of any particular word isunrelated to the structure of the underlying document or the occurrenceof other words in the document. The PLSA model assumes that documentsare combinations of “latent classes” or factors, each of which has adifferent word frequency probability distribution. It then attempts toidentify the set of latent factors (e.g., key words) that best explainsa corpus of documents by maximum likelihood estimation. Once a set oflatent factors has been identified, the semantic similarity between anytwo documents or sets of documents can be measured by decomposing eachdocument or set of documents into a series of factor representations andthen taking the factor-weighted dot product of each resulting series toproduce a similarity score.

In certain applications, such as simple text classification, andcontext-based searching, these and other similarly-derived PLSAfunctions can be used to create effective document classifiers oridentifiers (i.e., sets of descriptive key-words or subject matteridentifiers). However, they are not generally able to effectivelyexploit or account for context-specific features and unique contextualstructures and underlying contextual meanings of documents that may makethem more or less similar, or nuances of “similarity” that might occurin different contextual scenarios or circumstances. They also do notprovide a measure of “relevance” in the absolute sense of anevent-specific probability. Rather, they typically provide only anarbitrary or relative measure of contextual “similarity” based onobserved overlap of the various latent factors identified.

To overcome these and/or other difficulties and to generally provide animproved model approach, a novel relevance assessment technique is usedto quantitatively measure the degree of relevance between two or morepatents and/or other documents of interest and to thereby group, mapand/or cluster relevant patents and related documents objectively andrepeatably. A suitable relevance assessment technique is preferablybased in whole or in part on a statistical analysis of the citationalrelationships that exist between multiple related documents (“relationalcitation analysis”).

Relational citation analysis is a novel technique that exploitscitational and/or contextual relationships (“relevance links”) that mayexist between two or more patent documents and/or other relateddocuments of interest for the purpose of quantitatively measuring adegree of relevance. The primary assumption underlying the approach isthat patent documents and/or other documents that are citationallyrelated to one another at the first generation (one document directlyciting the other) are “relevant” to one another. In other words, ifdocument X directly cites (refers to or mentions) document Y (or viceversa, or both), then documents X and Y are considered to becitationally related at the first generation and are therefore deemed orassumed to be “relevant” to one another. If document X cites document Zwhich, in turn, cites document Y, then documents X and Y are consideredto be citationally related at the second generation and are potentiallyrelevant to one another according to a particular derived relevanceprobability distribution. Specifically, it has been determined that theoccurance of a citational relationship between any two documents at asecond generation creates a corresponding measurable probability thatthe documents may be citationally related at the first generation. Thus,“relevance” between any two documents can be defined and measured in theabsolute sense of an event-specific probability that the documents arecitationally related at the first generation.

For specific purposes of the description that follows, the term“relevance” shall be used and intended herein to mean in its broadestsense any probabilistically measurable event that defines apredetermined relationship between two or more documents. Preferably,the predetermined relationship comprises a citational relationship atthe first generation. In alternative embodiments of the invention it maybe more useful or convenient to adopt a modified or alternativedefinition of relevance, such as probability of classification overlap,probability of a particular threshold contextual overlap, probability ofexaminer citation, and/or some combination thereof For specific purposesof the description that follows, the term “relevance link” shall be usedand intended herein to mean any measurable or discernable relationshipthat exists between two or more patent documents or other documents ofinterest that is or may be statistically informative of relevance.Suitable relevance links may include, for example and withoutlimitation, citational relationships, contextual relationships,contextual similarity, PLSA similarity scores, other relevance scores,classification or categorization overlap, common examiner, common artgroup, common authorship or inventorship, patent family overlap, commonownership, common geography, and the like.

Given a suitable definition of relevance, a statistical relevance scorecan be mathematically expressed as the simple event probability that twoor more documents of interest will have a relationship that satisfiesthe relevance definition (e.g., that they are citationally related atthe first generation). Thus, for example, two documents having a directcitational relationship (one document directly citing the otherdocument) can, in accordance with one preferred embodiment of theinvention, be described as having a relevance score of 1, indicating100% probability of a direct citational relationship. Two documentshaving no citational relationship and no possible likelihood of acitational relationship at the first generation can be described ashaving a relevance score of 0, indicating 0% probability of a directcitational relationship. Thus, any two patent documents or otherdocuments of interest selected from a given population can becharacterized as having a certain relevance score calculated as thesimple event probability that one or both documents would directly citeor reference the other.

It has been further discovered through empirical analysis that there isa strong statistical covariance between citational relationshipsoccurring at the first generation and citational relationships occurringat the second and higher generations. Intuitively, this makes somesense. Two patents or other documents that cite one another are alsomore likely to cite other contextually similar documents as well,thereby creating second generation and higher citational relationships.As a result of this strong covariance, a powerfully predictive probit orlogit regression model can be constructed using the first generationcitational relationship as the dependent variable (criterion variablesought to be predicted) and the second and higher generation citationalrelationships as independent variables (predictor variables). A suitablyconstructed regression model can then be optimized to calculate theevent probability p(R) that a first-generation citational relationshipexists between any two documents of interest by examining the number andtype of citational relationships that may exist at the second generationand higher.

FIG. 5 illustrates one preferred approach for determining and measuringmulti-generational citational relationships between two or more selecteddocuments. In this case two patent documents (or other documents) P1 andP2 are selected for which it is desired to quantify the degree ofrelevance or relevance score. Each document P1 and P2 is citationallyrelated to a total of 8 other documents at the first generation. Thisincludes in each case 4 “backward” cites (document of interest citingearlier documents; illustrated depending from below) and 4 “forward”cites (later documents citing document of interest; illustratedextending from above). Preferably (though not necessarily), we ignorefor now any actual citational relationship that may exist betweendocuments P1 and P2 at the first generation since this is the dependentvariable sought to be determined in the regression.

Using basic computer database logic we extend multiple generations ofcitations and/or other relevance links from each document P1 and P2 andwe identify and count the number of shared or overlapping citations ateach generation. Thus, for example we identify 3 overlapping citationalrelationships at the second generation (“GEN2”) citing common documentsA1, A2 and A3. Note that in each case A1-A3, we can count a total of 2citational links separating document P1 from document P2, correspondingto a second generation citational relationship. Similarly, we see thereare a total of 2 citational relationships occurring at the thirdgeneration (“GEN3”), citing common documents B1 and B2. Finally, we seethere is 1 citational relationship occurring at each the fourth andfifth generations (“GEN4” and “GEN5”), citing common documents C1 andD1, respectively.

The determined count of citational relationships at each generation 2-5are all preferably provided as input predictor variables (independentvariables) to a multi-variate probit regression model. The regressionmodel is preferably formulated and optimally adjusted to predict theexistence or absence of a first generation citational relationshipbetween documents P1 and P2 (whether such relationship actually existsor not) and/or some other objective relationship based on some or all ofthe input predictor variables provided. The resulting probability score(and/or a mathematical derivation thereof) is an objective andrepeatable probabilistic quantification of the likely relevance betweendocuments P1 and P2.

Optionally, if desired, the citation counts at each generation could beweighted, scored or otherwise normalized so that, for example, documentswith particularly heavy citations (backward or forward) do notdisproportionately affect the regression results. For example, oneparticularly preferred weighting method is to divide the citation countat each generation according to the total number of citationalrelationships. Another preferred approach is to effectively distribute acitation “credit” for each document, which credit is split or dividedfrom generation to generation substantially inversely proportional tothe number of citational relationships at each generation. Othersuitable weighting approaches and obvious variations and improvementsthereto will become readily apparent to those skilled in the art.

Optionally, any number of additional statistically informative metricsor relevance links could also be provided as independent input predictorvariables, as desired. These may include, for example and withoutlimitation, various measures of contextual similarity or relatedness(e.g., number of overlapping key words in the title, abstract, claimsand/or detailed description), subject matter categorizations, subjectmatter key word descriptors, authorship, sponsorship, ownership,geographic associations, and the like. Alternatively, some or all of thesecond generation and higher relational citation input predictorvariables may be omitted if desired. For example, it may desired tocalculate a relevance score (e.g., probability of a first generationcitational relationship) based solely or partly on one or more otherfactors or relevance links, such as various factors measuring contextualrelatedness and the like.

One particularly preferred technique for measuring contextualrelatedness or contextual similarity between one or more patentdocuments and/or other documents of interest is to count the number ofcommon or overlapping words in the title, abstract, claims and/ordescription, and weighting each word substantially inversely to itsdetermined frequency within a statistically relevant sample of similardocuments. Preferably, separate weighted word counts would be generatedfor each of the title, abstract, claims and detailed descriptionportions of each selected document. These, in turn, are preferablyprovided as additional independent regression variables to help improveand optimize the predictive power of the regression algorithm formeasuring relevance.

Another particularly preferred technique for measuring contextualrelatedness or contextual similarity between two or more documents P1,P2 is to: i) identify a list of words used in each document along withcalculated word frequencies (number of times each word is used dividedby the total word count for each document); ii) multiply eachcorresponding word frequency to obtain a frequency product for eachword; iii) divide each frequency product by one-half the sum of thesquares of each corresponding word frequency; and iv) take the sum totalof the result for each word. In formulaic terms this may be expressedas:

${CR} = {\sum\limits_{1}^{n}\left\lbrack \frac{{f\left( {{wn},{P\; 1}} \right)}*{f\left( {{wn},{P\; 2}} \right)}}{{1/2}*\left\{ {{{f\left( {{wn},{P\; 1}} \right)}\hat{}2} + {{f\left( {{wn},{P\; 2}} \right)}\hat{}2}} \right\}} \right\rbrack}$

where: CR=Contextual Relatedness Score

-   -   f(wn, P1)=frequency of word n in document P1    -   f(wn, P2)=frequency of word n in document P2

Those skilled in the art will readily appreciate that if two documentsP1, P2 are contextually identical (contain the same number and frequencydistribution of words), then the calculated contextual relatedness score(CR) in accordance with the above formula will equate to 1. To theextent that two documents P1, P2 contain different words and/ordifferent frequencies of word usage, then the calculated contextualrelatedness score (CR) in accordance with the above formula would equateto something between 0 and 1. Those skilled in the art will readilyappreciate the above formula can be modified and/or improved toselectively weight or ignore particular words according to theirfrequency or infrequency of usage in a selected statistically relevantpopulation of similar documents. For example, it would be highlydesirable to selectively ignore and/or reduce the weighting offrequently used words and selectively consider and/or increase theweighting of infrequently used words. Optionally, the approach can besimilarly extended to selectively count and appropriately weightoverlapping combinations of words and/or concepts as an alternative orimproved measure of contextual relatedness between two or moredocuments.

Those skilled in the art will also appreciate that contextualrelatedness can be measured relative to any or all desired portions of apatent or other document of interest, including basic portionscorresponding to the title, abstract, claims and/or the detaileddescription. Contextual relatedness can also be measured with respect toan identified group of documents having a centroid or combined wordfrequency distribution and/or with respect to particular portions of asingle document to itself (e.g., claims versus detailed specification orClaim X versus Claim Y).

Preferably, relevance analysis and the determined relevance regressiontransform function is executed by a high-speed computer across an entiredatabase of potentially relevant documents. More preferably, relevancescores are calculated between each document and each other document (orpotentially relevant document) in the database and the results stored inan accessible index so that relevance scores can be instantly accessedon the fly as needed. Advantageously, a relevance index constructed andstored in this manner would enable substantially faster and morefruitful searching and analysis of relevant patent documents and/orother citationally or contextually related documents than heretoforepossible using conventional searching and indexing techniques.

Relevance Mapping

Conventional search engines typically provide a standard input/outputtext interface for entering and refining search queries and fordisplaying and communicating relevant search results. The popularGoogle™ search engine, for example, is typical of mostgeneral-application search engines for searching relevant documents onthe world wide web using key-word searching and Boolean search querystructures. The USPTO patent search engine is typical of many in thepatent search space, which provide multiple text-input boxescorresponding to various key-word-searchable fields, such as patenttitle, abstract, description, inventor name, assignee name, and thelike. These simple interfaces are generally useful for routinesearching, but are less than ideal for more complex searchingapplications such as legal, scientific and patent prior art searching.

It would represent a tremendous improvement in the art to provide asearch input/output interface that displays and/or communicates searchinput criteria and corresponding search results in a way thatfacilitates intuitive understanding and visualization of the logicalrelationships between two or more related concepts being searched.Preferably, a novel iterative self-organizing mapping (“SOM”) techniqueis utilized to automatically generate a visual map of relevant patentsand/or other related documents desired to be further searched oranalyzed. For example, FIG. 6 shows a 2-dimensional SOM map 300generated in accordance with one preferred embodiment of the presentinvention. The map generally represents a selection of patents from theaerospace technology space. Each individual dot 310 represents anindividual patent and each patent has an associated X-Y coordinate that“maps” the patent within an arbitrary 2-dimensional space or patentdomain, as illustrated.

There are several possible techniques to construct the map 300. In afirst technique a relevant group of patent documents and/or relateddocuments is selected. Relevant documents may be selected byclassification, key word searching, relational citation analysis, and/orany other desired selection technique. Next, space coordinates (e.g.,X-Y, X-Y-Z, etc.) are preferably selected and assigned to each patent inthe given space such that the representative dots 310 are generallydistributed in an organized, arbitrary, random or semi-random pattern.An iterative algorithm is then applied to optimize an arbitrary orscaled distance between citationally related and/or unrelated patents(or other documents) within the multi-dimensional space.

In one particularly preferred embodiment, the mapping algorithm seeks tomaximize (on a relative scale) the distance or the square of thedistance (or other exponentiated distance) between citationallyunrelated patents and to minimize (on a relative scale) the distance orsquare of the distance (or other exponentiated distance) betweencitationally related patents. As the algorithm is iteratively andrepeatedly applied to each patent within the space, the patents that arecitationally related (that is, they cite to or are cited by one or morecommon or citationally related patents) will tend to gravitate togetherand form clusters. Patents that are not citationally related will tendto disperse.

For example, the SOM map 300 shown in FIG. 6 was generated using aniterative mapping algorithm and relational citation analysis asdescribed herein-above to optimize a scaled distance between a pluralityof citationally related patents identified in the aerospace technologyspace. After several hundred iterations, the particular illustratedpattern of dots evolves from an initial random milieu of dots containedwithin an arbitrary 2-dimensional space. Certain clusters of dots 350a-e are formed, as illustrated, corresponding to clusters ofcitationally related patents and/or other related documents.

In another particularly preferred embodiment, the mapping algorithmseeks to minimize the square of a calculated error signal (actualdistance less desired distance) between one or more pairs and/or groupsof citationally related patents (or other documents) in a space, whereinthe desired distance is calculated as a selected transform function ofthe relevance score calculated as described above. More preferably, thedesired scaled distance is calculated from determined relevance scoresaccording to a log-inverse probability function. Advantageously, inaccordance with one preferred embodiment of the invention the relativelocations and interproximities of patents 310 and patent clusters 350a-e are optimally or close-to-optimally arranged within the space sothat patents and/or other documents that are citationally related willtend to cluster together and non-citationally-related documents willtend to disperse. For example, patents comprising the dots in cluster350 a mostly relate to avionics controls. The patents comprising cluster350 b mostly relate to in-flight guidance systems. The patentscomprising cluster 350 c mostly relate to earth-orbiting satellitetechnology. The patents comprising cluster 350 d mostly relate toairplane wing deicing technology. The patents comprising cluster 350 emostly relate to aircraft wing design and aerodynamic flow surfaces.

The particular size, shape and localized dispersement characteristics ofthe SOM map 300 and clusters 350 a-e can be modified or controlled byadjusting one or more specifying parameters of the transform functionthat is preferably used to convert relevance scores to desired patentseparation distances. Preferably, a log-inverse probability transformfunction is used having log-mean and log-standard-deviation asspecifying parameters. More preferably, the specifying parameters areadjusted and optimized so as to minimize the average or total errorsignal between the map-represented distances and the calculated desireddistances between citationally related documents. More preferably, theactual represented distance or scaled distance between any two patentsrepresented on the SOM map 300 is correlated to and/or approximatelyequal to or representative of an arbitrary scaled distance (“citationdistance”) calculated as the log-inverse probability function of thecalculated relevance score. Most preferably, the citation distance isscaled so that patents having a citational relationship at the firstgeneration will, on average, have a scaled citation distance equal to anactual or arbitrary scaled measurement unit of 1.

Those skilled in the art will readily appreciate that an SOM relevancemapping algorithm substantially as disclosed and described above can beused to visually represent, differentiate, cluster and categorize aplurality of related patents or other documents of interest within agiven technology space based on relational citation analysis, contextualsimilarity analysis, and/or calculated relevance scores and wherein ascaled distance between any two selected patents represented on the SOMmap 300 is generally proportional to or representative of a determineddegree of relevance or similarity between the selected patents.Advantageously, the relevance mapping algorithm in accordance with onepreferred embodiment described herein is able to generate visual outputsthat are statistically accurate and repeatable. The results also are notinfluenced by subjective judgments as to how to best fit various relatedand unrelated technologies into a uniform technology classificationschema or by various semantic differences in how technologies may bedescribed in a patent document.

If desired, one or more high-speed computers could be employed on acontinual basis to calculate relevance scores and apply SOM relevancemapping across substantially an entire database of patents and/or otherrelated documents of interest. For example, FIG. 7 shows a 2-dimensionalSOM map 400 of the entire U.S. patent space (all patents issued from1983 to 2003) generated in accordance with one embodiment of the presentinvention. In this case major groups of patents are divided into logicalcells or domains 410, 420 by class and/or using Voronoi analysis.Preferably, peak densities of plotted clusters are identified and astructured Voronoi cell map overlay is developed using the determinedpeak density locations as center points or anchors for each logicaldomain or cell. If desired, individual cells may be color-coded orpattern-coded, as shown, to indicate a general field of technology(e.g., mechanical or biotechnology, etc.). Cells can be furthercharacterized or defined according to any one or more factors that maybe of interest, including without limitation, traditional patentclassifications, key word frequency, latent semantic analysis, claimterminology, growth rates, litigation rates, average IPQ, averagependency, patent densities, patent attrition and/or maintenance rates,obsolescence rates, and the like. In the particular indicated example,individual patent domains or cells are identified according to the mostpopular primary USPTO classification of patents within each domain.

FIG. 8 shows the 2-dimensional SOM map 400 of FIG. 7 modified inaccordance with another embodiment of the invention. In this case themajor groups are color coded by average IPQ score (red being highest,dark green being lowest). The map shows at a glance which specifictechnology areas are least active and most active and which areproducing the highest likely patent values. The map also advantageouslyreveals “white space” opportunities 430 between cells of localizedpatent concentrations where new patent value-creation opportunities maylikely exist.

FIG. 9 shows the 2-dimensional SOM map 400 of FIG. 7 modified inaccordance with another alternative embodiment of the invention. In thiscase the major groups are color coded by average historical litigationrates (red being highest, dark green being lowest). The map shows at aglance which specific technology areas are least litigation-active andwhich are the most litigation-active. The map can thus be used todevelop, analyze and communicate litigation risk profiles for anyparticular patent or technology area of interest. For example, this mapmay be useful for analyzing one or more insurable events (e.g.,infringement, invalidity, etc.) and determining appropriate cash reservelevels and/or insurance risk premiums.

Most preferably, the resulting SOM map data generated in accordance withthe present invention is used in conjunction with any one of a number ofcommercially available mapping software tools (e.g., Map Info™) toprovide a novel, highly intuitive and convenient input/output displayand communication interface for visualizing and analyzing multipledocuments and/or groups of documents relevant to a desired target space.For example, the Map Info™ product enables a user to pan and zoom withina mapped document space to explore various clusters andinterrelationships of patents or other documents in and around possibleareas of interest. Users can also “drill down” into the mapped data andselectively reveal or highlight specific selected information that maybe of interest.

For example FIG. 10A shows a drill-down view of the aerospace technologyspace defined generally by voronoi cell 420. In this case high-IPQpatents (patents having IPQ scores above a selected threshold) have beenflagged or highlighted. This may be very useful information for purposesof better understanding a space and/or for targetidentification/analysis (e.g., finding patents in a relevant space tobuy, sell, license or assert). FIG. 10B shows an alternative drill-downview of the aerospace technology space 420. In this case patents ownedby selected competitors have been highlighted and color/shape coded.This drill-down view may be particularly useful for purposes ofstrategic planning, strategic acquisition analysis, and industryeconomic/financial analysis. Highlighting patents owned by selectedcompetitors facilitates better and more strategic understanding thecompetitive landscape in a target technology space. It can also quicklyand visually communicate which competitors own or dominate certainconcentrations of patents and the how the various concentrations orclusters interrelate.

EXAMPLES

The following examples illustrate several unique applications of theinvention disclosed herein, highlighting some of the particularadvantages and benefits contemplated. Of course, the invention is notlimited to any particular example or embodiment disclosed.

Example #1 Improved Patent Rating/Ranking

FIG. 11 is a generalized overview diagram of a modified multivariateregression model for rating and/or analyzing patents having features andadvantages of the present invention. As discussed above in connectionwith FIGS. 1-3 the model preferably considers a variety of individualinput data points drawn from various relevant data sources. The modelfurther applies a statistically optimized transform or weightingfunction to calculate, based on the input data, the statisticalprobability that one or more patents selected from a particularpopulation of patents will be maintained or abandoned in the future (orexhibit another characteristic or event of interest).

Preferably, the model considers as additional input regression variablesthe mapped location of a patent asset within the SOM map 300, itsdetermined location within a particular technology space or cell 310and/or its particular determined location relative to other patents andclusters of patents 250 b within a technology space. More preferably, apeer group of relevant patents is first defined using the map 300 and/orunderlying relevance data. Advantageously, the peer group may be used toprovide a technology normalization reference point and may also be usedto provide additional statistically informative input data to the ratingregression model. Most preferably, informative input data (e.g.,occurance of abandonment/maintenance events and/or other statisticallyinformative information) relative to one or more identified peer grouppatents is weighted according to relevance scores calculated withreference to a patent of interest to be rated or scored according to themodel. In this manner a more statistically predictive and reliableratings model is provided.

Example #2 Relevance Searching

SOM mapping, relevance analysis and/or ratings can advantageously bedeployed to provide an improved search engine for locating patentdocuments and/or other related documents of interest. Preferably a firstgroup of patents is identified representing the closest known referencesto a particular technology or search topic of interest. These patentsmay represent, for example, a list of cited patents identified in aprevious patent search and/or they may be identified using traditionalsearch tools, such as key word searching, structured search queries,hand searching or the like. Relevance analysis is preferably performedon each identified patent in the first group to generate a second groupof additionally relevant patents, each having an associated relevancescore relative to one or more patents identified in the first group.

Relevance scores for each identified patent in the second group arepreferable summed and/or mathematically combined to provide a singlerelevance score for each patent in the second group relative to theentire group of patents identified in the first group. Most preferably,relevance scores are probabilistically combined in such a manner thatthe aggregated relevance scores represent the estimated eventprobability that the relevant patent in the second group is citationallyrelated at the first generation to one or more patents in the firstgroup. Search results are preferably ranked, sorted and displayedaccording to the aggregated relevance score. More preferably, the searchresults are displayed in the form of an interactive chart, graph or SOMmap. Most preferably, a researcher can review and select additionalrelevant patents and/or other documents revealed in the second group andadd them to the first group. The first group can then berefined/modified and the relevance analysis iteratively repeated as manytimes as desired to generate refined and/or more relevant searchresults.

Example #3 Target Identification and Qualification

In the field of mergers and acquisitions it is often desirable to beable to screen, test and qualify potential merger or acquisition targetsagainst one or more strategic goals. For example, it is often a primarygoal of a merger or acquisition to increase shareholder value bycombining one or more similar assets to create synergies and economiesof scale. In the various high-tech industries a major part of theoverall contemplated value proposition supporting a merger opportunitymay lie in the aggregation of complimentary patent assets and relatedtechnology assets (e.g., trade secrets, software, know-how, and humanR&D capital). Primary value drivers include: (i) elimination and/orreduction of patent infringement risk (including all of the concomitantexpenses associated with risk identification, assessment andmitigation); (ii) enabling creation of improved product lines andservices that utilize the best patented features from both portfolios;and (iii) combining complimentary R&D resources and associated humancapital to increase and improve overall innovation output.

One particularly unique and desirable aspect of the present invention isthat it facilitates statistical measurement and quantification of thedegree to which one or more patent portfolios (and the underlyingassociated R&D resources and human capital) may compliment each other.For example, relevance analysis and/or relevance scores can be generatedfor each patent owned by a potential acquisition target relative apotential acquiring company. Higher average relevance scores wouldindicate the presence of more complimentary patents, while lowerrelevance scores would indicate the presence of less complimentarypatents. Relevance scores could also be generated relative to one ormore identified competitors to determine and measure how a particularacquisition target might look strategically to other major players in atechnology space. Relevance scores could also be combined with IPQscores, financial metrics and/or other associated information to provideany number of informative measures, ratios, benchmarks and the like tohelp guide merger and acquisition decision analysis.

Those skilled in the art will recognize that similar identification andqualification techniques can be used to identify and qualify specificpatent assets and/or groups of patent assets desired to be purchased orsold through private negotiated transactions, public sales and/orprivate or public auctions and the like. For example, relevance analysiscould be used to determine the identity of the most likely buyers,purchasers or bidders of one or more specific patent assets desired tobe sold. Alternatively, relevance analysis could be used to determinethe identity of the most likely sellers of one or moretechnology-specific patent assets desired to be purchased. For example,relevance analysis could be used to help determine whether a particularpatent asset is “core” or “non-core” relative to the prospectiveseller's overall patent and product portfolio. Similar regressionanalysis techniques could also be used to predict and identify specificpatent assets that are likely to be abandoned by a current patent ownerin the near future.

Example #4 Resource Optimization

Statistical and anecdotal evidence supports the notion that patent lawfirms, attorneys and agents having particular expertise in a technologyarea produce higher quality work product than comparable firms havingonly general expertise. Firms, attorneys or agents having particularexpertise in a technology area are typically more adept and efficient atwriting, analyzing, and prosecuting patent applications in thetechnology area. Presumably, this is because they possess greater depthof knowledge in the technology area, are more intimately familiar withthe relevant prior art and/or have more experience drafting andprosecuting relevant patents in the space.

It is not always easy to identify, qualify and rank patent attorneys,agents and/or firms possessing desired technical expertise. Relevanceanalysis, SOM mapping, and/or ratings can be deployed to quicklyidentify and qualify one or more legal resources (e.g., law firms,attorneys and/or agents) based on particular identified technologyexpertise and/or work product quality. A technology of interest is firstdefined and/or one or more patents are identified as a result thereof. Arelevance analysis is performed based on either a key word search or aselected group of patent(s) and a list of relevant patents is preferablygenerated along with associated relevance scores and IPQ scores. Mostpreferably, although not necessary, relevance and IPQ scores aremultiplied together for each patent so that IPQ scores are essentiallyweighted by relevance to the technology of interest. Totals are thengenerated for each firm-attorney-agent identified by the relevantpatents and the results are ranked from highest to lowest.Firms-attorneys-agents having the most relevant, highest quality(high-IPQ) patents are ranked highest. Firms-attorneys-agents having theleast relevant, lowest quality (low-IPQ) patents are ranked lowest.

SOM mapping, relevance and/or ratings can be similarly deployed by apatent law firm, attorney or agent to quickly identify and qualify oneor more potential clients based on particular technology expertiseand/or work product quality. For example, a particular technology ofinterest is defined according to expertise possessed by the firm,attorney or agent. A relevance analysis is performed based on either akey word search or a selected input group of patent(s). A list ofrelevant patents is preferably generated along with associated relevancescores and IPQ scores. If desired, relevance and IPQ scores may bemultiplied together for each patent so that IPQ scores are essentiallyweighted by relevance to the technology of interest. Totals are thengenerated for each potential client identified by the relevant patentsand the results are preferably ranked from highest relevance to lowestrelevance. Potential clients having the most relevant, lowest quality(low-IPQ) patents are ranked highest. Potential clients having the leastrelevant, highest quality (high-IPQ) patents are ranked lowest.

As another example, SOM mapping, relevance and/or ratings can bedeployed by a company, university or other patent portfolio holder toquickly identify and qualify one or more potential inventors orresearchers based on particular technology expertise and/or a trackrecord of patent quality/value. A technology of interest is definedaccording to a particular technology expertise possessed or desired tobe possessed by the company. A relevance analysis is performed based oneither a key word search and/or a selected input group of representativepatent(s). A list of relevant patents is preferably generated along withassociated relevance scores and IPQ scores. If desired, relevance andIPQ scores may be multiplied together for each patent so that IPQ scoresare essentially weighted by relevance to the technology of interest.Totals are then generated for each potential inventor/researcheridentified by the relevant patents and the results are ranked fromhighest relevance to lowest relevance. Potential inventors/researchershaving the most relevant, highest quality (high-IPQ) patents are rankedhighest. Potential inventors/researchers having the least relevant,lowest quality (high-IPQ) patents are ranked lowest. The results may beused for purposes of optimally staffing ongoing research projects,defining collaboration agreements, research staff reviews andperformance benchmarking, recruiting and job placement, strategicheadhunting, and other similar applications. Similar processes andprocedures may be used to identify and optimize allocation of patentoffice resources.

Example #5 Semantic Analysis

SOM mapping, relevance and/or ratings can advantageously be deployed toprovide improved semantic analysis. Preferably one or more clusters ofpatents and/or other related documents are identified using relationalcitation analysis, relevance analysis and/or SOM relevance mapping.Logical clusters are then further analyzed for word frequency usage.Similarities and/or differences are identified and analyzed using latentsemantic filtering and/or other similar techniques. For example, variousdescriptive words and word combinations can be identified for aptlydescribing each patent cluster using probabilistic latent semanticanalysis (PLSA). Logical subject matter indexes can then be constructedbased on semantic analysis of multiple logical clusters and subclustersof patents. Advantageously, relevance analysis and the other noveltechniques deployed in accordance with the present invention ensurerelevance and contextual similarity of clustered documents.

As another example, relevance analysis can be used to generatedictionaries of similar and/or synonymous words. Preferably, descriptivekey words appearing in patent titles of clustered patents arestatistically analyzed and mapped to similar or related words appearingin the title, abstract, description or claims of the clustered patents.For example, the word “engine” may be statistically correlated to thewords “cylinder”, “piston” or “internal-combustion”. Such an index ofstatistically correlated words can be used to provide improved keywordsearching and/or further analysis.

Example #6 Data Cleansing/Unification

Those skilled in the art will readily appreciate that virtually anylarge information database will typically and invariably contain someimperfect data entries. These may generally include, but are not limitedto, misspellings, spelling variations, missing or incomplete data, dataformat variations, name variations, name changes, variations in the useor non-use of ASCII extended characters, and the like. In the context ofconducting database searching and aggregated data analysis, theseimperfect data entries are exceedingly problematic and annoying. Forexample, if one wished to identify all patents issued to IBM in 2004 onewould need to search under at least 23 different name variations,including:

IBM Corporation

Intenational Business Machines Corporation

Internatioal Business Machines Corporation

Internation Business Machines Corporation

International Busines Machines Corporation

International Business Machine Corporation

International Business Machines Company

International Business Machines Coroporation

International Business Machines Corp.

International Business Machines Corporaiton

International Business Machines Corporatiion

International Business Machines Corporatioin

International Business Machines Corporation

International Business Machines Corporations

International Business Machines Corporatoin

International Business Machines,

International Business Machines, Corp.

International Business Machines, Corporation

International Business Machines, Inc.

International Business Machnies Corporation

International Businesss Machines Corporation

Internationl Business Machines Corporation

lnternational Business Machines Corporation

This list does not even include the hundreds of subsidiaries owned orcontrolled by IBM, each with its own unique set of name variations. Italso does not include a large percentage of published applications ownedby IBM or its subsidiaries for which assignee name information has notyet been recorded or published (assignee name is completely missing fromthe published application).

Conceivably, a person desiring to conduct a database search for IBMowned patents could construct a complex query or set of queries run insuccession that would attempt to capture some or all of the identifiedname variations. But this requires tedious and time-consuming work andthere is no significant confidence that all relevant documents would beidentified. It would be more convenient and provide a searchable dataresource that corrects and/or “unifies” all the possible name variationsin each case. This task can be accomplished or at least substantiallyadvanced using multivariate regression analysis in accordance with onepreferred embodiment of the invention.

Preferably, an assignment database is constructed containing current andhistorical patent assignment information and other relevant associatedinformation. Proposed matches are preferably generated from a list ofunique assignee names by identifying statistically informativesimilarities, such as common characters, syllables, words, and the like(“string similarities”) and/or common inventors, common attorneys/firms,common geography, and the like (“substantive similarities”), associatedwith each unique assignee name. A statistically relevant sample ofproposed matches is selected and a match verification indicator (“yes”or “no”) is generated for each proposed match. A multi-variate probitregression algorithm is then constructed and optimized to statisticallypredict whether two or more selected assignee names “match” (arevariations of) a single assignee name. For example, the regressionalgorithm could advantageously be constructed and optimized from theselected statistically relevant sample using the match verificationindicator as the dependent variable and using the various identifiedstatistically informative similarities as the independent variables.Independent regression variables preferably include, without limitation:number or percent of matching characters, character pairs, syllables,and/or other various string similarity functions such as Levensteindistance and the like. Independent regression variables preferably alsoinclude, without limitation, a variety of substantive similarities, suchas: number or percent of matching inventors, matching inventor city andstate combinations, matching assignee city and state combinations,matching assignee street address, matching attorney/firm names, matchingsubject matter classification codes, matching patent family members,citation overlap, associated relevance scores, and the like.

Advantageously, multivariate regression analysis and the other noveltechniques deployed in accordance with the present invention ensure adesired level of statistical accuracy, repeatability and efficiency inthe ongoing task of matching assignee name variations. It alsoadvantageously enables accurate statistical assessment of probableownership in cases where the assignee name is not otherwise identified(e.g., applications published prior to the filing of assignmentdocuments) by identifying and assessing other statistically informativeassociations such as various identified substantive similarities.Similar techniques may also advantageously be employed to correct and/orunify attorney/firm names, inventor names, city/state and othergeographic information, address information, examiner names, subjectmatter descriptions or classification codes, and the like. Similartechniques may also advantageously be employed in more general (e.g.,non-patent), contexts to correct and/or unify business names, personalnames, authorship information, address information, document titles,subject matter descriptions, relationships/contacts data, data scrubbingand/or other similar applications.

Example #7 Product-To-Patent Mapping

In another preferred embodiment SOM mapping, relevance and/or ratingscan be deployed to quickly and automatically identify and map commercialproducts or services that correlate (or likely correlate) to one or morepatents. This may be convenient, for example, to enable users toretrieve patent numbers by inputting one or more commercial productnames or specifications. Patent commercialization data (e.g., thepresence or absence of a commercial product covered by a patent and/orother relevant data, such as sales volume, sales growth, profits, etc.)could also provide additional objective metrics by which to raterelevant patents in accordance with the invention. For example, patentsurvival statistics indicate that patents that are being activelycommercialized are statistically more valuable than so-called “paperpatents” for which there is no known corresponding commercial product.

As disclosed in U.S. Pat. No. 6,556,992 issued to Applicant, andincorporated herein by reference in its totality, product patent markingdata and related information can advantageously be collected and storedon a centralized, searchable computer network database or the like inorder to allow users to search and obtain patent information onparticular commercial products. Relevant patent marking data could begathered either through private voluntary reporting by manufacturers ofsuch products and/or it may be gathered through other available means,such as automated web crawlers, third-party reporting or inputting andthe like. Preferably, the patent marking database can also include thenecessary URL address information and/or the like which will allow usersto hot-link directly to a third-party web page for each correspondingproduct and/or associated product manufacturer.

Advantageously, SOM mapping, relevance and/or ratings can be deployed toquickly and automatically identify and map commercial products to one ormore correlating patents. For example, a database of know product-patentcorrelations (e.g., from patent marking information) can be provided andanalyzed. Relevance analysis, latent semantic analysis, SOM mappingand/or a combination thereof, can be used to groupsubject-matter-related patents into relevant clusters. Similar analysiscan be performed on product documentation describing various featuresand advantages of each patented product. The resulting patents andpatent clusters and the products and product clusters can then be mappedto one another or superimposed using the known product-patentcorrelations. A regression analysis can then be performed to identifystatistically relevant semantic correlations between clustered productsand clustered patents. For example, specific product features and/ordescriptive terminologies may be statistically mapped or correlated tospecific claim limitations and/or specific claim terminologies. Thisinformation, in turn, can be used to help identify unknownproduct-patent correlations.

Preferably, products having unknown patent correlations are analyzedusing semantics and/or relevance analysis (e.g., examining variousrelevance links between two or more products) to determine or estimate adegree of relevance to one or more patents and/or other products forwhich product-patent correlations may be known. Preferably, amultivariate probit regression model is formulated and optimized todetermine or estimate the probability that a particular product would becovered by or correlated to one or more identified patents. Independentregression variables may include, for example and without limitation:semantic similarity of product description to patent description orclaims; semantic similarity of product description to other relatedproduct descriptions for which a product-patent correlation may beknown; identity or similarity of channels of distribution; identity orsimilarity of purchasers or users; identity or similarity of SIC codes;identity or similarity of trademark goods & services descriptions;location or relative proximity of two or more related products on aregression-optimized SOM product map; and/or location of one or moreproducts on a regression-optimized SOM product map relative to thelocation of one or more patents on a superimposed regression-optimizedSOM patent map.

Example #8 Claim Breadth Analysis

The scope of legal protection afforded by a patent is uniquely andspecifically defined by the “claims” of the patent. The claims provide aconcise legal definition of what was approved to be patented by theUnited States Patent & Trademark Office (“USPTO”) and sets forth themetes and bounds of the patentee's right to exclude others from makingand using the patented invention. The mere fact a patent has been dulyauthorized and issued by the U.S. or other national Patent Office doesnot guarantee it will have any value. Each patent is unique in the scopeand extent of what it covers. There are broad patents and narrowpatents; valuable patents and worthless patents. Two patents in the sameindustry and relating to the same general subject matter can commanddramatically different transaction values and royalty rates in a freemarket (or damage awards in litigation) depending upon subtledifferences in claim language that can affect the comparative breadth ofeach patent.

The value of a patent is directly impacted by the scope and breadth ofthe patent claims. Because the claims precisely define the right toexclude, it is axiomatic that a patent will have value only for and tothe extent that the claims actually exclude or cover a product, methodor other manufacturing output having some economic value. There can beno value in the right to exclude others from doing something theyeither: (i) have no desire to do in the first place; or (ii) do not needto do because of the availability of non-infringing alternatives. As aresult, claim breath must be carefully analyzed and assessed as anintegral part of any patent analysis. All other things being equal,patents having broad claims (few limitations) will be more valuable thanpatents having narrow claims (many limitations). Narrow claims confernarrow rights affecting only a relatively small portion of relevanteconomic output. Broad claims confer broad rights affecting a relativelylarge portion of relevant economic output.

SOM mapping, relevance and/or ratings can advantageously be deployed toprovide improved claim breadth analysis. Preferably one or more clustersof patents and/or other related documents are identified usingrelational citation analysis, relevance analysis and/or SOM relevancemapping. Logical clusters are then further analyzed to construct astatistical hierchy of claims and/or claim language according torelative breadth. For example, dependent claims are necessarily narrowerthan independent claims. Thus, relationally associated words and phrasesused in the dependent claims and independent claims can be placed in aword breadth hierchy according to a statistically optimized regressionanalysis. The regression analysis is preferably formulated and optimizedto predict whether an analyzed claim (using particular language and/orstructure) is broader or narrower than one or more other claims based onvarious input regression variables.

As another example, an alternative and/or enhanced claim breadthregression model is formulated and optimized using multi-variateregression analysis. For example, it is well known that later filedpatents cannot legally claim coverage of subject matter disclosed inearlier filed/published patents. Thus, a later filed patent isnecessarily narrower in scope than a relevant earlier filed or issuedpatent. Using relative breadth as the dependent regression variable onecan construct and optimize a regression algorithm that would bepredictive of relative claim breadth. Independent predictor variablescould include, for example and without limitation: claim word count,unique word count, particular word and word combination frequencies,limiting or restricting words, broadening or inclusive words, semanticsimilarity scores between two or more claims, number of relevantdocuments and associated relevance scores, and the like. Those skilledin the art will recognize that the regression analysis can be formulatedand optimized to predict whether an analyzed claim is likely broader ornarrower than one or more comparison or reference claims.

As another particularly preferred example, an alternative and/orenhanced claim breadth regression model is formulated and optimizedusing semantic claim coverage analysis. Claims can be modeled, forexample, as a structured search query comprising one or more words,phrases, or concepts embodied by the particular language and/orstructure of the claim. Claim scope or breadth can be mathematicallymodeled or estimated in this context as the number of documents within adatabase of relevant documents that would satisfy each structured query.Short claims containing only a few common words, phrases or conceptswould have the largest breadth because more documents are likely tosatisfy a structured query based on the claim. On the other hand, longclaims containing a variety of uncommon words, phrases or concepts wouldhave the narrowest breadth because less documents are likely to satisfya structured query based on the claim.

The relative breadth of patents and/or whole patent families containingmultiple independent claims could similarly be mathematically modeled asthe total number of unique documents within a database of relevantdocuments that would satisfy any one of a number of structured searchqueries based on each claim in the patent or patent family. In thismanner, overlapping claim coverage (structured claim queries that turnup some or all of the same search results) is advantageously taken intoaccount in defining or estimating an overall scope of a patent, patentfamily or patent portfolio. In other words, under this approach onehundred patent claims covering the same subject matter as a single claimwould be considered essentially equal in scope. If desired, theoccurance and/or extent of overlapping claim coverage could also bemeasured and reported as an alternative measure of claim breadth, claimintensity, likely validity, and/or some other similar metric ofinterest.

The structured search query in each case could be a simple conjunctivekey-word search or something more sophisticated. For example, structuredqueries could be semantically expanded or enriched using latent semanticanalysis and/or by drawing statistical and/or contextual relationshipsfrom the specification, other claims or other relevant identifiedpatents. Preferably, a full-text database of relevant patent documentsis defined for purposes of executing structured search queriesrepresenting each claim. This database may include later-filed patents,earlier-filed patents, or both, as desired. Alternative and/oradditional databases may include, without limitation, publishedscientific journals or periodicals, patent abstracts or claims, variouson-line databases, and/or the world-wide-web or any portion thereof.More preferably a database of patents and related documents is definedusing relevance analysis in accordance with one or more preferredembodiments of the present invention. Most preferably, relevance scoresare further used to weight the results of each structured search so thathighly relevant documents are accorded greater weight in determining anestimated claim scope than less relevant documents.

Those skilled in the art will recognize that a multi-variate regressionanalysis can be formulated and optimized around any one or more of theabove-described examples to optimally and objectively predict orestimate the scope or breadth of coverage embodied by one or more patentclaims. Those skilled in the art will further recognize that one or moresimilar techniques could be developed to statistically estimate thelikely validity of one or more patent claims based on a combination ofclaim breadth analysis and relevance analysis as disclosed and describedherein.

Example #9 Royalty Modeling

In many transactions involving patent sales, licensing, cross-licensing,patent pooling, patent litigation/arbitration/mediation,appraisal/valuation, and the like, it may be helpful or useful toprovide an objective benchmark or guideline for calculating a reasonableroyalty payment to be made to one or more patent owners, licensors orinventors. SOM mapping, relevance and/or ratings can advantageously bedeployed to provide improved royalty benchmarking and other objectiveguidelines for purposes of royalty calculation. For example, reasonableroyalty rates are typically determined by conducting a comparativesurvey of similar or representative patents for which royalty rate datais available. Typically the closest representative example is usedprovide a reasonable royalty guideline. Alternatively, a simplemathematical average may be taken across all identified representativeexamples to provide a “blended” guideline rate.

In accordance with one preferred embodiment of the invention, relevanceanalysis and/or SOM relevance mapping is used to identify and quantifyone or more representative patents for which royalty rate data is or maybe available. More preferably, identified representative royalty rateexamples are weighted and averaged in accordance with a determinedrelevance score relative to the patent of interest. Most preferably,identified representative royalty rate examples are weighted andaveraged in linear proportion to the determined relevance score relativeto the patent of interest.

As another example, a regression-optimized royalty sharing formula maybe constructed based on relevance analysis and/or a combination ofrelevance analysis, claim breadth analysis and/or claim validityanalysis. In a pooling or cross-licensing context, for example, it maybe desirable to share or divide royalties paid by a licensee inaccordance with a regression optimized formula that calculates arelative probability of patent coverage based on a combination ofrelevance analysis, claim breadth analysis and/or other factors. Forexample, two competitors may enter into a cross license agreementwhereby each competitor is provided with a non-exclusive license underthe other's patent portfolio. Typically, the exchange of licensed rightsmay not be identically balanced. For example, one competitor may havemore extensive patent coverage than the other in a relevant technologyspace; and/or one competitor may have patents covering higher-valueproducts and/or products produced at higher profit margins than theother. In that case typically a balance of payment(s) is negotiated andagreed as an off-set to counterbalance the relative difference in thevalue of the licensed rights.

In accordance with one possible implementation of the invention, asuggested guideline balancing payment can be objectively determined orestimated using a regression-optimized formula that essentiallycalculates a relative probability of patent coverage based on acombination of factors, including without limitation, relevanceanalysis, claim breadth analysis and/or claim intensity or validityanalysis. For example, a cross-product calculation could be carried outacross two or more patent portfolios whereby a claim coverageprobability for each patent in a given portfolio is developed andstatistically evaluated against every relevant patent in an identifiedcompetitive portfolio(s). The determined probabilities are then comparedand/or mathematically differentiated so as to objectively suggest alevel of imbalance and/or an appropriate or reasonable offsettingpayment. The particular parameters defining the cross-portfolioimbalance formula or balancing payments formula can be principallynegotiated and agreed in advance based on determined relevance, claimbreadth, claim intensity, and/or other agreed factors. Alternatively,formula parameters may be determined objectively throughregression-optimized analysis of historical licensing data, balance ofpayment data, patent maintenance data, litigation data and/or the like.

In patent pooling arrangements it may be similarly desirable to share ordivide royalties paid by a licensor in accordance with a regressionoptimized formula that calculates a relative probability of patentcoverage based on a combination of relevance analysis, claim breadthanalysis and/or claim intensity/validity analysis. For example, acollection of related and/or determined relevant patents or associatedpatent interests may be aggregated into a single pool for purposes ofachieving technological synergies, collaborative technology developmentand/or convenient centralized licensing of pooled patents or patentinterests.

For purposes of economic fairness and in order to attract willing poolparticipants it is desirable to distribute each item of royalty incomegenerated in some fair proportion to the estimated relative contributionof each patent in generating the royalty income. However, conducting afull-scale legal and economic fairness analysis in each case would beslow and cost prohibitive. It also undesirably encourages proliferationof disputes and contentiousness among pool participants as eachparticipant jockeys for the legal and economic positions that bestadvance its own case and its own bottom line. Simply dividing royaltiesequally among pool participants and/or dividing in equal proportion tothe number of patents contributed desirably avoids much of the legalwrangling, but it unfairly penalizes pool participants who havecontributed the most valuable patent assets to the pool and unfairlyrewards pool participants who have contributed the least valuable patentassets. The resulting economics are undesirably such to discourage poolparticipants from contributing their most highly-valued patents and toencourage proliferation and contribution of many less valuable patents.

In accordance with one possible implementation of the invention, asuggested guideline royalty allocation or royalty payment is objectivelydetermined or estimated using a regression-optimized formula. In aclosed patent pool, for example, pooled patents or patent interests arelicensed only to pool participants who have contributed one or morepatents to the pool. Assuming that pool participants acquire andmaintain patents roughly in proportion to their respective productofferings and/or sales/profit revenues (a fair assumption, on average)then each patent can effectively be treated as defining or representingan associated quantity of licensed product. Each patent also theneffectively provides a point of royalty distribution relative to allother patents in the pool. A cross-product calculation can be quicklycarried out across the entire pool of contributed patent assets (and/ornon-contributed patent assets) to determine or estimate reasonableroyalty allocations and/or balancing payments for each pool participantvis a vis each other pool participant. Preferably, a claim coverage orclaim overlap/domination probability for each patent in the pool isdeveloped and statistically evaluated against every other patent in thepool. The determined probabilities are preferably compared and/ormathematically differentiated so as to objectively suggest appropriateor reasonable royalty payments and/or royalty allocations for each poolparticipant. Alternatively, those skilled in the art will recognize thatsimpler and/or more complex analyses can also be conducted and used asthe basis for royalty allocation calculations, including withoutlimitation, citation overlap, forward citation rates, semanticsimilarity analysis, and the like.

For example, pool participants may be charged a certain fee for eachpatent they contribute to and/or maintain in the pool. Preferably someor all of the participation fee is divided among pool participants(including, preferably, the contributing participant) according to theagreed royalty allocation formula. The resulting economics encouragepool participants to contribute only the best/strongest patents to thepool in order to reap maximum financial returns under the agreed royaltyallocation formula. The resulting economics further discourages poolparticipants from proliferating and maintaining less valuable orvalueless patents in the pool. Alternatively, pool participation feesand/or royalty allocations can be varied or adjusted, as desired, basedon any one or more of a number of additional or alternative factors,including without limitation: size or estimated value of a contributedpatent portfolio; IPQ scores, valuations and/or other rating/rankingscores for patents contributed or used; extent of revenues and/orprofits generated by products in a technology space covered by one ormore patents in the pool; legal infringement analysis based on one ormore patents in the pool; forward citation analysis (single ormulti-generational); risk analysis; geographic considerations; and thelike.

In an open patent pool, pooled patents or patent interests may also belicensed to one or more third parties who have not (or not yet)contributed any patents to the pool. There are several preferred ways toallocate to pool participants royalty income generated from thirdparties. One way is to use relevance analysis, SOM relevance mappingand/or other tool(s) to define a centroid of the patent pool or relevantportion thereof. This is essentially the point within a relational spacethat minimizes the average relational distance or degree of separationbetween all other points in the space. In the patent pooling context itis typically the most active or most densely populated portion of thepatent pool and contains typically the most heavily cited and litigatedpatent(s). Thus, in one example, third party royalty revenue isallocated to pool participants as calculated above based on ahypothetical point of distribution through the determined centroid. Inanother example, third-party royalty income may be associated with oneor more licensed products. Based on an independent search and analysis,one or more patents (either within the pool or outside the pool) areidentified as being most closely related and/or representative of thelicensed product(s). If more than one relevant patent is identifiedthese may be stack-ranked and/or weighted in accordance with adetermined relative importance or degree of similarity. Royalty revenuesare then be allocated to pool participants as calculated above based ona hypothetical point of distribution through one or more of thedetermined representative patent(s).

Other alternative approaches also are contemplated. For example, royaltyrevenues can be allocated across a pool of patents or patent interestsin proportion to statistically estimated claim breath and/or acombination of estimated claim breadth and relevance. In anotherexample, royalty revenues can be allocated across a pool of patents orpatent interests according to relative forward citation frequency. Forexample, if a pool of patents receives 1000 forward cites in a givenyear and a participant's contributed patents receives 100 of thesecites, then a fair or recommended royalty allocation would be 10%. Inanother example, royalty revenues can be allocated across a pool ofpatents or patent interests according to multiple forward citationfrequencies tracked across several generations. For example, if a poolof patents receives 1000 first-generation forward cites, 2000second-generation forward cites and 5000 third-generation forward cites,then royalties can be allocated as follows: 50% shared among thefirst-generation cite getters, 25% shared among the second-generationcite getters, 12.5% shared among the third-generation cite getters, and12.5% shared among the fourth and higher generation cite getters. Theexact proportions and sharing allocations can be varied or adjusted asdesired to optimally allocate royalties in a manner that is perceptivelymost fair and that best encourages the highest level of patent poolparticipation.

Advantageously, the particular parameters defining a royalty allocationformula or balancing payment formula in any particular scenario can benegotiated and agreed in advance by pool participants based ondetermined relevance, claim breadth, claim intensity, and/or otherfactors. More preferably, formula parameters can also be determinedand/or refined objectively through regression-optimized analysis ofhistorical licensing data, balance of payment data, patent maintenancedata, litigation data and/or the like. Suggested or estimated fairroyalty allocations or balancing payments calculated in accordance withthe present invention do not necessarily guarantee or result in completefairness in all cases. But, they can advantageously provide an efficientand objective guideline or benchmark for helping determine a “more fair”or “fair enough” allocation in the context of various privatelynegotiated settlements, license agreements, pooling agreements, and thelike.

Example #10 “ASCAP” Patent Pooling Model

The above royalty calculation methodologies and many other aspects andpreferred implementations of the present invention have particularlyadvantageous application to the formation and operation of an openpatent pool loosely modeled after the American Society of Composers,Authors and Publishers (“ASCAP”). In this case, a large number ofrelated and/or unrelated patents or patent interests are preferablypooled together, clustered into logical groups or licensing bundles, andlicensed openly under standardized terms to various industries who mayuse or wish to use some or all of the patented technologies. Thebenefits and advantages of forming and operating such a pool aredemonstrably large and include, for example: realization oftechnological synergies on a vast scale; convenient centralizedenforcement and licensing of pooled patent interests; centralized andmore efficient asset management; reduction of business risks; reductionof patent litigation and other patent dispute resolution costs;decreased transaction costs; greater investment certainty; improvedfinancial incentives for individual inventors, investors andsmall-businesses to innovate; increased velocity of innovation anddevelopment of new ideas and products; and increased fairness andpredictability across all phases of patent procurement, licensing andenforcement.

Various possible working examples or embodiments of the ASCAP patentpooling model are contemplated. One simple preferred example isdescribed herein for purposes of illustration. In this examplepreferably pool participants contribute to the pool a patent interest inthe form of a non-exclusive license under one or more issued, in-forcepatents and/or pending applications. The license may cover the U.S.only, or it may include one or more additional licensed countries. Morepreferably, each contributed license is non-exclusive, worldwide inscope and has no restrictions. Most preferably, a standardized patentinterest contribution agreement is used to efficiently facilitate eachpatent transaction and to precisely define the legal agreement betweenthe parties, legal responsibilities and limitations, and, mostpreferably, the agreed parameters for calculating royalty allocations tobe paid and distributed to each pool participant. Preferably there is aper-patent and/or per-transaction fee charged to pool participants upfront to cover the initial transaction costs involved.

Using relevance analysis and/or SOM relevance mapping, pooled patentinterests are preferably clustered into logical groups or “licensingbundles” preferably grouped or broken out by sector and/or industry. Forexample, SIC codes could be used to help identify relevant industryand/or sector groupings. The licensing bundles may or may not containoverlapping patents. For example, certain patents may have uses acrossmultiple industries, in which case it may be desirable and efficient toinclude a single patent in multiple licensing bundles. For eachlicensing bundle a relevance analysis is preferably conductedperiodically and used to determine a group of most-closely aligned orrelated patents that are not part of the licensing bundle or the broaderpatent pool. This is preferably an automated or semi-automated process.

Owners of the identified relevant non-pooled patents are preferablyidentified and offered the opportunity to take a license under thelicensed bundle of patents (preferably under standardized, fair andsimple terms) and/or to participate in the pool by contributingnon-exclusive rights under the determined relevant patents and sharingin the resulting royalties that may be generated. For example, the termsof the non-exclusive license may simply provide for a flat percentagepayment of gross revenues generated by products sold in various SICcodes and/or specific technologies covered by the licensed patents.Advantageously, if a patent owner chooses to participate in the pool,then royalties paid in could be partially or fully offset by allocatedroyalties paid out by the pool. Optionally, the pool could be combinedwith one or more specialized insurance products so that, for example,license fees paid into the pool would also buy an insurance policyensuring against certain patent infringement risks in the technologyspace covered by the licensed bundle of patent rights.

Advantageously, providing patent pooling with an objective royaltyallocation formula in accordance with one or more preferred embodimentsof the invention disclosed and described herein increases the perceptivefairness and objectivity of royalty distributions to pool participants.This feature makes the pool a significantly more attractive andpractical vehicle for patent aggregation and licensing than heretoforepossible. Providing centralized licensing, monitoring and enforcement ofpooled patent assets also provides tremendous benefit due to theconsolidation of expertise and vast economies of scale. The formationand operation of one or more patent licensing pools along the linesdescribed and discussed herein should also have significantpro-competitive effects, such as increasing access to technology,decreasing transaction inefficiencies and increasing the velocity ofproduct innovation. As a result, it is not anticipated that such poolswould be the subject of heightened antitrust review or the subject ofopposition actions by the Federal Trade Commission or the European TradeCommission.

Example #11 Legal Conflict Checking

Legal and ethical rules require that law firms, lawyers and other legalprofessionals not engage in the representation of clients having adverseinterests. For large law firms with many diverse clients, complying withthe legal and ethical conflicts requirement can pose enormousadministrative burdens. Moreover, the consequences for failing to complyand/or failing to take reasonable proactive measures to comply can bequite dire (attorney disqualification, disbarment, malpractice liabilityand/or other forms of financial liability). Especially for large firmspracticing in the high-tech intellectual property space (e.g., patentprosecution and litigation) monitoring and resolving potential conflictscan be enormously challenging and time consuming.

The current state of the art in legal conflict monitoring and resolutiontypically involves circulating via e-mail lists of proposed new clientengagements and new matter/case engagements for both new and existingclients to all legal professionals engaged in firm activities.Typically, each proposed new client/matter engagement includes a briefsubject matter description of the proposed engagement along with anidentification of the more salient potentially adverse parties. Theseconflict check lists are typically generated and required to be reviewedevery morning/evening by each attorney or other legal professionalpracticing with a firm. For large firms with multiple hundreds orthousands of law professionals and multiple thousands of clients, theconflict check list can be quite voluminous and can result inexpenditure of many hours of administrative and professional time eachday to review and resolve.

There have been some attempts to automate or build greater efficienciesaround certain portions of the conflict check process. For example,lists of adverse party names are now typically run through a client-namedatabase in an attempt to automatically identify any name matches.However, this is an imperfect process because, as noted above, there areoften a wide variety of possible name variations, aka's, dba's,subsidiaries, affiliates and/or other complex relationships. Thesevariations and alternatives may not be adequately represented in asimple client name database. Subject matter conflict checking is anotherparticularly challenging and time consuming aspect of the overallconflict monitoring and resolution process. One attempt to build greaterefficiency includes the use of a computer database of patents itemizedby owner, class, and subclass. Overlap of patent ownership across one ormore classes and/or subclasses provides an indication of possiblesubject matter conflict. However, as noted above, patent classificationsare notoriously prone to latent inaccuracies and inconsistencies in howthe various classification categories are defined and applied by each ofthe national and international patent offices throughout the world. Thismakes the use of classification codes as possible conflict indicatorsless than reliable. Currently the only reliable way to monitor andresolve subject matter conflicts is through brute force reporting,reviewing and analyzing on an attorney-by-attorney and matter-by-matterbasis. Due to the enormous time and resource constraints both increating and reviewing adverse party and subject matter conflict checks,suffice it to say that the accuracy, efficiency and reliability ofcurrent conflict check systems are less than desired.

Advantageously, multivariate regression analysis and other novelconcepts and techniques deployed in accordance with the presentinvention can be used to create and implement an automated conflictcheck system that is capable of statistically screening and monitoringpotential adverse party and subject matter conflicts. In one preferredembodiment a unified name database is created using one or more of theregression analysis techniques as described above. The unified namedatabase preferably includes subsidiaries, dba's and other namevariations and related entities. Optionally, a broader conflictsdatabase may include other related items of information, such asgeographic location; IPC/SIC codes, assigned patents, trademarks,product names or descriptions, inventor names, executive names and/orthe like. For each conflict check desired to be assessed, potentialclient names and/or adverse party names, including, optionally, one ormore related items of information are provided as input regressionvariables to a multi-variate regression algorithm. The regressionalgorithm is preferably formulated and optimized to determine orestimate the risk probability of an adverse relationship or potentialconflict based on the conflicts database and the provided inputinformation. For example, the regression algorithm may be trained toidentify and statistically assess certain string similarities and/orcertain substantive similarities between a potential or existing clientand one or more other clients or identified adverse parties.

As an alternative and/or enhanced example, relevance analysis can beused to measure or estimate the likelihood that one or more patentsowned (or to be owned) by an existing or proposed new client would becited against or cited by one or more patents owned by one or moreexisting clients. The citation of one client's patents against thepatent(s) of another client presents a potential direct conflict ofinterest because the interest of one client would be to construe thecited patent broadly while the interests of the other client would be toconstrue the cited patent narrowly. Thus, the cumulative relevance scoreor citation probability between two portfolios provides a statisticalmeasure of the likelihood of a subject matter conflict occurring.Similar conflict check algorithms and/or an improved or enhancedconflict check algorithm can be further developed using patent markingdata, product-patent mapping data, trademark ownership data, copyrightownership data, product descriptions, SIC codes, historical litigationfilings or disputes, oppositions, and the like. A particularly preferredtechnique is to formulate and optimize a conflict check algorithm usinghistorical litigation or opposition data as a dependent regressionvariable and using various substantive conflict indicators (e.g., patentrelevance scores, product overlap, sic code overlap, etc.) asindependent predictor variables.

Although this invention has been disclosed in the context of certainpreferred embodiments and examples, it will be understood by thoseskilled in the art that the present invention extends beyond thespecifically disclosed embodiments to other alternative embodimentsand/or uses of the invention and obvious modifications and equivalentsthereof. Thus, it is intended that the scope of the present inventionherein disclosed should not be limited by the particular disclosedembodiments described above, but should be determined only by a fairreading of the claims that follow.

What is claimed is:
 1. A computer-implemented method forprobabilistically quantifying a likelihood or probability that a directcitational relationship exists between a first document and a seconddocument based on one or more observed indirect citational relationshipsoccurring between said first document and said second document, themethod comprising: determining by a computer system said one or moreindirect citational relationships between said first document and saidsecond document; analyzing by the computer system said one or moreindirect citational relationships to determine one or more generationalcitation counts between said first and second documents at generationshigher than said direct first generation citational relationship;applying by the computer system a probability transform function to saidone or more determined generational citation counts to determine orprobabilistically quantify a relative event probability that said firstdocument directly cites said second document or said second documentdirectly cites said first document; calculating by the computer system aprobability value based on the relative event probability that saidfirst document directly cites said second document or said seconddocument directly cites said first document, wherein the applying aprobability transform function comprises providing said one or moredetermined generational citation counts as input predictor variables toa multi-variate regression model, said model being selected and adjustedto determine a relative event probability that said first documentdirectly cites said second document or said second document directlycites said first document based on said one or more determinedgenerational citation counts, wherein the computer system comprises atleast a processor and a storage device.
 2. The computer-implementedmethod of claim 1, wherein the determining said one or more indirectcitational relationships comprises using computer database logic toextend multiple generations of citations from each said first and seconddocument to identify one or more shared or overlapping citations to oneor more commonly cited documents.
 3. The computer-implemented method ofclaim 1, wherein the analyzing said one or more indirect citationalrelationships comprises determining for each said indirect citationalrelationship the number of citation links or generations separating saidfirst document from said second document and counting or aggregatingsaid indirect citational relationships according to said determinednumber of citation links or generations.
 4. The computer-implementedmethod of claim 3, wherein the analyzing said one or more indirectcitational relationships further comprises weighting or normalizing eachsaid indirect citational relationship.
 5. The computer-implementedmethod of claim 3, wherein the analyzing said one or more indirectcitational relationships further comprises weighting said generationalcitation counts in accordance with one or more citation credits, saidcitation credits being determined such that a total citation credit foreach said first or second document is divided from generation togeneration substantially inversely proportionally to the total number ofcitations occurring at each generation.
 6. The computer-implementedmethod of claim 1, wherein said multi-variate regression model isfurther selected and adjusted to determine a relative event probabilitythat said first document directly cites said second document or saidsecond document directly cites said first document based on one or moreadditional measurable or discernable relationships that may existbetween said first document and said second document and wherein theapplying a probability transform function further comprises providingsaid one or more additional measurable or discernable relationships asinput predictor variables to said multi-variate regression model.
 7. Thecomputer-implemented method of claim 1, further comprising generating asearch result set comprising two or more documents having one or moreindirect citational relationships to said first or second documents andusing said determined likelihood or probability of direct citation torank or order said search result set.
 8. The computer-implemented methodof claim 1, further comprising using said first document to generate afirst search result set comprising two or more documents having one ormore indirect citational relationships to said first document and usingsaid determined likelihood or probability of direct citation to rank ororder said first search result set.
 9. The computer-implemented methodof claim 8, further comprising selecting from said first search resultset at least one additional document, using said first document and saidat least one additional document to generate a second search result setcomprising two or more documents having one or more indirect citationalrelationships to either said first document or said at least oneadditional document, and using said determined likelihood or probabilityof direct citation to rank or order said second search result set. 10.The computer-implemented method of claim 1, further comprising thefurther step of using said determined likelihood or probability ofdirect citation to identify or qualify patent assets or groups of patentassets desired to be purchased or sold through private negotiatedtransactions, public sales or public auctions.
 11. Thecomputer-implemented method of claim 1, further comprising using saiddetermined likelihood or probability of direct citation to identifylogical clusters of similar or related documents.
 12. Thecomputer-implemented method of claim 1, wherein at least said first orsecond document comprises a patent, and further comprising rating,ranking or valuing said patent based at least in part on said determinedlikelihood or probability of direct citation.
 13. A computer-implementedmethod for rating or ranking the relative quality or value of a firstpatent document based at least in part on determining a relativeprobability that a direct citational relationship exists between saidfirst patent document and a second patent document, the methodcomprising: determining by a computer system one or more indirectcitational relationships that may exist between said first patentdocument and said second patent document; analyzing by the computersystem said one or more indirect citational relationships by determiningfor each said indirect citational relationship the number of citationlinks or generations separating said first patent document from saidsecond patent document and counting or aggregating said indirectcitational relationships into generational citation counts according tosaid determined number of citation links or generations; applying by thecomputer system a probability transform function to said one or moredetermined generational citation counts to determine or quantify therelative probability that said first patent document directly cites saidsecond patent document or said second patent document directly citessaid first patent document; wherein the applying a probability transformfunction comprises providing said one or more determined generationalcitation counts as input predictor variables to a multi-variable eventprediction model, said model being selected and adjusted to determine arelative event probability that said first document directly cites saidsecond document or said second document directly cites said firstdocument based on said one or more determined generational citationcounts; and providing by the computer system said determined relativeprobability to a computer-implemented patent rating system and causingsaid computer-implemented patent rating system to thereby rate or rankthe relative quality or value of said first patent document based atleast in part on said determined relative probability, wherein thecomputer system comprises at least a processor and a storage device. 14.The computer-implemented method of claim 13, wherein the determiningsaid one or more indirect citational relationships comprises usingcomputer database logic to extend multiple generations of citations fromeach said first and second patent document to identify one or moreshared or overlapping citations to one or more commonly cited documents.15. The computer-implemented method of claim 13 wherein the analyzingsaid one or more indirect citational relationships further comprisesweighting or normalizing each said indirect citational relationship. 16.The computer-implemented method of claim 15, wherein the analyzing saidone or more indirect citational relationships further comprisesweighting said generational citation counts in accordance with one ormore citation credits, said citation credits being determined such thata total citation credit for each said first or second patent document isdivided from generation to generation substantially inverselyproportionally to the total number of citations occurring at eachgeneration.
 17. The computer-implemented method of claim 13, wherein theapplying a probability transform function comprises providing said oneor more determined generational citation counts as input predictorvariables to a multi-variate regression model, said model being selectedand adjusted to determine a relative event probability that said firstpatent document directly cites said second patent document or saidsecond patent document directly cites said first patent document basedon said one or more determined generational citation counts.
 18. Thecomputer-implemented method of claim 13, wherein the providing saiddetermined relative probability comprises providing said determinedrelative probability as an input predictor variable to a multi-variateregression model, said model being selected and adjusted to determine arelative rating, ranking or value of said first patent document based atleast in part on said determined relative probability and other selectedmetrics relative to said first and second patent documents.
 19. Thecomputer-implemented method of claim 13, further comprising generating asearch result set comprising two or more documents having one or moreindirect citational relationships to said first or second patentdocuments and using said determined relative probability to rank ororder said search result set.
 20. The computer-implemented method ofclaim 13, further comprising using said determined relative probabilityto identify or qualify patent assets or groups of patent assets desiredto be purchased or sold through private negotiated transactions, publicsales or public auctions.
 21. The computer-implemented method of claim13, further comprising using said determined relative probability toidentify logical clusters of similar or related patent documents.